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Measuring Momentum- the Dwyer Score of UFC 201: Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley

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UFC 201 this coming Saturday has a score of +12. It’s an OK score for your average event but it does have the least momentum of any PPV card in 2016 (UFC 195: +16, UFC 196: +24, UFC 197: +39, UFC 198: +43, UFC 199: +30, UFC 200: +19) and ranks in joint 11th in the list of this year’s 22 fight cards. That said, UFC 201’s score does beat 5 of the last 6 events’ scores, with UFC 200 the only card to best UFC 201 it in that period.

Fittingly, the fighter contributing most to the valuation of this event’s momentum is arguably the most exciting fighter in the UFC right now. Robbie Lawler (+5) has been in the Fight of the Year discussions for the last 2 years now and looks set to be in the nominations again for 2016 following his back-and-forth war with Carlos Condit in January. Three fighters tie for the worst momentum on the card; Jorge Masvidal, Francisco Rivera and Jake Ellenberger all with current streaks of -2.

It’s not the most-anticipated PPV event of all time, but names like Robbie Lawler, Jorge Masvidal, Rose Namajunas, Tyron Woodley, Justin Scoggins and Matt Brown should ensure we’re in for an exciting night of fights on Saturday.

The Big Contributors

Robbie Lawler +5 : 5 victories, 2 successful title defences and 3 Fight of the Night bonuses. Not to mention at least 1 Fight of the Year award. And in Jake Ellenberger, Matt Brown, Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit he’s certainly not been facing slouches. Lawler is undisputedly in the form of his life at the moment. A compelling match-up with Stephen Thompson could be waiting in the wings if Lawler can get past Tyron Woodley.

Nikita Krylov +4 : Krylov is coming off 4 victories by stoppage, the latter 3 of which are all submission wins over BJJ black belts. These 4 victories were in Dublin, Stockholm, Saskatoon and Rotterdam. “Al Capone” takes his world tour to Atlanta to face 18-fight veteran and former middleweight Ed Herman, looking to add another win to a streak that is currently bettered only by Jon Jones in the UFC light heavyweight division.

Justin Scoggins +2 :  Aged just 24, Scoggins is already after his fifth UFC victory. He is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the flyweight division and is looking to make it three in a row against flyweight veteran Ian McCall. Wilson Reis had initially been scheduled for a title fight with Demetrious Johnson on this card off the back of just one consecutive victory. Scoggins must think that with a win streak of 3 in a still-relatively-new division will see him in the title discussions, though he may have to wait for next season of TUF to pass even if he is victorious on Saturday.

Update: Following Justin Scoggin’s last-minute withdrawal due to weight-cutting complications, the Dwyer Score of this event is +11


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC 201 Lawler vs Woodley +12

UFC on FOX Holm vs Shevchenko +2

UFC FN McDonald vs Lineker +10

UFC 200 Tate vs Nunes +19

TUF Finale Jędrzejczyk vs Gadelha II +10


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC: Rothwell vs Dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

 

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Fight Announcements

Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou Official for UFC 220

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UFC 220 in Boston, Massachusetts has its main event. Stipe Miocic (17-2) will put his belt on the line for the third time against rising heavyweight star, Francis Ngannou (11-1)

Rumors surrounded the match-up for UFC 220 after Ngannou’s first round knockout over Alistair Overeem, at UFC 218. The Cameroonian heavyweight called for the fight himself. In his octagon interview proceeding his most recent victory, Ngannou stated:

“I’m feeling good… I’m on my way to a title shot”.

The heavy handed Ngannou has finished all of his opponents in all of his six UFC bouts. A streak which includes a kimura submission over Anthony Hamilton and a TKO victory against former UFC heavyweight champion, Andrei Arlovski. Overall, he holds a ten fight win streak. His only defeat came by way of unanimous decision to Zoumana Cisse, in his second professional MMA fight.

If victorious, Ngannou would become the first African-born champion in UFC history.

Not to be diminished, Stipe Miocic rides his a streak of his own into the beantown match-up. Five consecutive wins, five knockouts and the past four of which, ended in the first round. A victory in Boston for the champ would make him the longest reigning heavyweight champion in UFC history. Currently, Miocic is one of three heavyweights, in the promotions entirety, whom has successfully defended the belt twice.

UFC 220 will be held at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on January 20th, 2018. The pay-per-view (PPV) card will also feature light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, as he faces challenger Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir.

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Events

Ladies Fight Night 7: “Double Trouble” Preview

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Polish women’s federation Ladies Fight Night is going to celebrate their second birthday this year on the 15th to 17th of December. Two days, two events with a lot of great bouts.

LFN in Poland is being titled the new Invicta FC. The Polish owners created this federation to give European women a chance to fight on a big platform.

Hosting their first ever event in December 2015, LFN will hold two great cards next week, that will feature women who have fought under many prestigious promotions, such as the UFC, Invicta, Bellator, Glory, and Kunlun.

Two days of fantastic fights, intensified by a double dose of sports impressions. The name is not accidental, LFN 7 / LFN 8 combines two events, during which the best Polish fighters will be shown, as well as the best fighters from Europe (including France, Sweden, Italy, the Czech Republic and Romania)

The stakes are high, and we are electrified by the clashes between warriors such as Żaneta Cieśla vs Silvia La Notte and Patricia Axling vs. Cindy Silvestri. Mainly due to their vastness of their experience in the cage.

In the fight of the evening, the talented Romanian Cristina Stanciu will face Magdaléna Šormovádo. Stanciu fought twice in the UFC, but she was unfortunately cut from the promotion after suffering consecutive losses to Cortney Casey and Maryna Moroz.

Judyta Rymarzak vs Marta Waliczek is an amazing fight between two experienced kickboxers. Both making their pro MMA debuts on the night, we will witness a one-of-a-kind duel between two kickboxing perfectionists, as they look to transcend their skills into the MMA world.

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Invicta

Mackenzie Dern victorious in Invicta debut 

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Late Friday night, Mackenzie Dern (5-0, 1-0 Invicta FC) won her co-main event booking, defeating Kaline Medieros (8-6, 2-2 Invicta FC), at Invicta FC 26: Maia vs. Niedzwiedz, via submission (armbar) with only fifteen seconds remaining in the fight.

Much of the fight was controlled by Dern. The heralded prospect displayed her power, visibly damaging her opponent with multiple overhand rights. Striking is an under-developed aspect of her attack, only when compared to the twenty-four-year-olds black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Above all, she showed a progression of her striking skills. Dern looked to be bigger and physically stronger than her veteran opponent. She utilized forward pressure and found the proper timing for her overhand right throughout.

The veteran Medeiros showed her toughness throughout the fight. She defended and scrambled out of some bad positions during the grappling exchanges. Ultimately, she tapped when caught in a deeply planted armbar.  While Medeiros did earn a few hard trip takedowns, it factored minimally in the result as she refused to follow Dern to the mat. The Boston native suffered her second straight loss, Friday night. Her first was to, former Invicta strawweight champion, Angela Hill.

Dern made her professional debut in July of 2016 with Legacy Fighting Alliance (previously: Legacy Fighting Championship). In her debut, she defeated Kenia Rosas by unanimous decision. The Phoenix-born fighter won her next three bouts. Before her MMA career began, Dern won the ADCC (Abu Dhabi Combat Club) championship at 60 kg. She was the first American born female to become champion at the weight. Her grappling resume boasts many more incredible accomplishments. Justifiably, a growing spotlight now hangs over her, her skills, and potential in the sport of MMA.

Elsewhere on the Invicta 26 card, Jennifer Maia defeated Agnieszka Niedzweidz by unanimous decision. Maia retained her Invicta flyweight belt, defending it for the second time. Invicta FC 26: Maia vs. Niedzweidz, took place at the Scottish Rite Temple in Kansas City, Missouri.

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