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Measuring Momentum- the Dwyer Score of UFC 202: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor II

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One of the most anticipated bouts of the year is right around the corner, and that anticipation shows in the event’s Dwyer Score as UFC 202 registers a large +23. That score ranks 5th of 2016’s 24 events thus far, beating July’s UFC 200 (+19) though falling just short of the two headliner’s original bout in March at UFC 196 (+24).

It’s the highest scoring event of any kind since early June, and of the 19 fighters eligible to contribute a score to Saturday’s event, 15 are coming off at least 1 win. For sake of comparison, at UFC 201 11 of the 21 fighters contributing a score were coming off at least 1 win. That means 79% of this Saturday’s card are coming of a UFC victory compared to 52% at UFC 201- this was not an easy card to get booked on.

The highest scorer on the card is Cody Garbrandt (+4), the undefeated 25-year-old coming off the highest-profile victory of his career in the form of a first-round KO over a previously undefeated Thomas Almeida. The lowest contributor to this event is Artem Lobov (-2) after back-to-back disappointing performances against Ryan Hall and Alex White.

Demian Maia and Carlos Condit were originally slated to meet on this card (a booking that would have increased UFC 202’s Dwyer Score to +27, by the way), which would have put UFC 202 in the discussions for the most stacked main card this year, but with Garbrandt, Glover Teixeira, Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, Donald Cerrone et al still on the billing, maybe that booking would have been too greedy.

The Big Contributors

Conor McGregor -1 : McGregor is coming into this fight off the back of his first UFC defeat. If he wins this bout, talk of a lightweight title shot, possibly at Madison Square Garden at UFC 205, will be back on. If he loses this bout, Team Conor can downplay the Nate Diaz saga as a brave foray into a higher weight class before returning for a featherweight title defence. Make no mistake, a second loss to Diaz here will not see Conor McGregor fade into the background, though it certainly changes the flavour of his 2016 plans.

Nate Diaz +2 : Diaz could be getting paid more in 2016 than he made in his entire career beforehand. The McGregor saga has kick-started a career that had looked for a moment as if it were starting to wind-down. It’s hard to say what a second victory over Conor would mean for Nate, would the UFC feel comfortable granting him a title-shot? Would Nate even want a title-shot? And if so, lightweight or welterweight? The Diaz brothers are such enigmas, impossible to predict, and if Nate is victorious again on Saturday then we’ll all have a job trying to guess what comes next.

Anthony Johnson +2 : ‘Rumble’ is 5-1 since returning to the UFC, with 4 of those victories coming via TKO/KO (3 in the first round, 1 in the second). Glover Teixeira is a former title challenger and a tough challenge for anyone, but a man whose recent UFC opponents include Phil Davis, Lil’ Nog, Alexander Gustafsson, Daniel Cormier, Jimi Manuwa and Ryan Bader will not be put off by Glover’s reputation. Daniel Cormier has already said he’d like to fight the winner of this bout, which is clearly the number one contender bout in the light-heavyweight division.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor II +23

UFC FN Rodríguez vs Cacares +11

UFC 201 Lawler vs Woodley +12

UFC on FOX Holm vs Shevchenko +2

UFC FN McDonald vs Lineker +10


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing-streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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[Watch] First trailer for Conor McGregor: Notorious released

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Many have wondered when we would get to see Conor McGregor have his own documentary film in cinemas. After months of waiting and teasing at it through social media we finally have the initial trailer. The trailer shows some fantastic little clips from throughout his career. From a first glance this is without a doubt one to be looking forward to, enjoy. Conor McGregor: Notorious will hit theatres November.

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What must Conor McGregor do to be considered the undisputed G.O.A.T?

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In November 2016, Conor McGregor cemented his legacy as an all time great by becoming the first simultaneous two weight world champion holding both the Featherweight and Lightweight belts. In that year McGregor also won three fights at three different weight classes.

“The Notorious One” has the fourth highest win percentage in the UFC at 90%, and he owns the fastest finish in a UFC title fight. This may upset a few MMA purists as McGregor only has 10 UFC fights to his name, but he is certainly in the G.O.A.T discussion now more than ever after his recent bout with Floyd Mayweather Jr.

There are three possible ways to define the greatest of all time.

  1. Whether or not the individual is a pioneer of the sport and earns plaudits for their innovation and creativity, e.g. Royce Gracie is a perfect example.
  2. Whether the fighter has done a lot to help develop and grow the sport e.g. Chuck Liddell isn’t always top of everyone’s list but he’s always in the conversation due to the way he brought the UFC to mainstream audiences.
  3. Judging a fighter on their skill set and MMA record, e.g. Jon Jones who has a perfect MMA record with some high calibre opponents on his list of victims.

Conor McGregor fits in to each category on this list and deserves to be in the G.O.A.T discussion, but he’s not quite the undisputed number one just yet. Here are some of the things McGregor needs to do to become the undisputed greatest of all time.

Defend His Belt

Conor McGregor two belts

What do Demetrious Johnson, GSP, Anderson Silva and Jon Jones all have in common? They all have multiple title defences and they’re all in the G.O.A.T discussion because of it. Jon Jones has the least out of those named competitors with 8 consecutive title defences. Conor McGregor currently has 0 title defences despite being a UFC champion since December 2015.

In defence of McGregor every time it’s looked like he would be defending his belt a much bigger opportunity has arisen. When the time came to defend his Cage Warriors belts he was off to the UFC.

After winning his featherweight title at UFC 194, he was scheduled to make history by facing Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight belt at UFC 196, before facing Diaz. After losing on March 5th, McGregor then re-matched Diaz in the biggest fight in UFC history with the event playing host to the UFC buy rate record with roughly 1.6 million buys.

Then it was time to make history at UFC 205 where he became the first simultaneous two weight world champion. And when it finally looked like he would defend his belt he faced Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the biggest fight of all time for $100 million.

But now it’s finally time for McGregor to defend his belt. I’m not necessarily saying he has to match Jones’ 8 title defences, as I believe he will retire long before he even gets there. But maybe 3 or 4 title defences against competitors like Diaz, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson will prove he is championship material, and has what it takes to keep hold of the belt in a shark tank division stacked filled with trained killers.

It would be a move to silence the haters and stake his claim as the best to ever do it.

Become the First Fighter to Beat Khabib Nurmagomedov

McGregor is no stranger to doing something no other man has ever done before. So it would be no surprise to see him be the first fighter to beat Nurmagomedov.

Say what you like about Khabib, whether you think he’s an elite fighter or just your average Joe with a padded record (he’s not), but there’s one thing you have to say about him, he’s undefeated.

Fans on Twitter are constantly claiming Khabib is the man to dethrone McGregor. If that’s the case, then it would be equally impressive to see McGregor defend his crown against Khabib and hand him his first loss, adding another historic moment to his storied career. It is a win that would truly legitimise his G.O.A.T status.

Win the Third Fight Against Nate Diaz

McEnroe had Borg. Brady had Peyton Manning. Messi has Ronaldo. And Conor McGregor has Nate Diaz. Every great needs a great rival to make them better. Just look at Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones for example, those two men pushed and motivated each other to be better for years.

The problem with these great rivalries is that they have to be won to secure your legacy, nobody remembers the loser. Winning the trilogy fight against Nate would make Conor the clear winner in this rivalry and answer all questions asked from his doubters, it would see him earn a huge amount of respect and would catapult him to a legendary status.

However, the flip side to that is that if Nate won the third fight then Conor has even more questions asked of him, he may lose some of his star power and could also drop out of the G.O.A.T discussion.

Win the Welterweight Title

McGregor has already won the featherweight and lightweight belts, but he has claimed he’s coming for “all the belts” and I believe him.

If McGregor was the first man to become a three weight World Champion it would be hard to argue he is not the greatest mixed martial artist ever. Especially if he was to beat a top level fighter like Tyron Woodley, GSP or Robbie Lawler to become the welterweight champion. It is another impressive feat that would put him above the rest. It’s a big ask but that’s why it would make him the G.O.A.T.

Stay Clean and Know When it’s the Right Time to Retire

It sounds simple but one of the things that has hurt some of MMA’s biggest stars be considered the greatest has been their inability to stay clean and leaving the game before their inevitable decline.

Some notable stars like Chuck Liddell and B.J Penn’s cases of being the G.O.A.T have been damaged by the later stages of their careers, where they could not perform like they were capable of in their prime, leaving a sour taste in the mouths of many fans who may only remember the last few fights they had.

If McGregor quits whilst he’s ahead he won’t be fighting unnecessarily and tarnishing his legacy by competing when his chin has gone, and his athleticism has declined.

If McGregor can stay clean, which I have no doubt he will as he has always been an honest fighter, then he already has one up on those that have been caught taking steroids. Fighters like Jones and Silva’s legacies have not been ruined by testing positives but people will always view them differently because of it.

Conor has always made his intentions clear, “Get in. Get rich. Get Out” and a retirement in his early 30’s is more than likely, especially with a smart coaching team around him who want to see him happy and healthy. We will look back on his career fondly rather than thinking what could have been.

Let us know what you think Conor McGregor must do to be considered the G.O.A.T.

 

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Seriously, How is Joanna Jedrzejczyk Not in the Top 5 P4P Rankings?!

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Honest to God question here, how is Joanna Jedrzejczyk not in the top 5 of the UFC’s Pound for Pound rankings?

Jedrzejczyk is arguably the greatest female fighter of all time, yet she’s stuck behind three fighters who don’t even have a title defense on their record. Yes, these fighter rankings don’t hold much weight but put some respect on her name. Ranking Joanna at number seven is absolute blasphemy.

Official Pound for Pound rankings as of September 28, 2017. Source: UFC.com

The amount of disrespect the UFC shows to their fighters is at an all-time high so we shouldn’t really be surprised here. It’s understandable that Joanna is behind the likes of Conor McGregor and Demetrious Johnson in the rankings — but after that, it can be argued that she deserves that number three spot on the list.

Let’s take a look at just a few of Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s accomplishments:

  • Five successful title defenses (second most in UFC women’s division history)
  • A perfect 14-0 record, 8-0 in the UFC
  • Most leg kicks in a fight in UFC history
  • Highest significant strikes thrown in a UFC championship bout
  • Highest significant strikes differential in a UFC championship bout

Joanna has more title defenses than Conor McGregor, Stipe Miocic, Max Holloway, Daniel Cormier, and Cody Garbrandt — COMBINED. That alone should at least warrant her a top five spot on the list, yet all five of those fighters aforementioned are ranked ahead of her.

The common argument against Joanna is the “lack of competition” that she has faced, and while that is partially true, let’s not forget about the “competition” Demetrious Johnson has been up against — and he’s sitting comfortably at number one on the list. Also, we just saw how vicious both Jessica Andrade and Claudia Gadelha are at UFC Japan, and Joanna dominated both women and virtually neutralized their attacks. So that flawed “lack of competition” argument is irrelevant.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has looked nothing short of spectacular in her time as UFC strawweight champion. Credit: Joshua Dahl-USA TODAY Sports

It’s about time that Joanna Jedrzejczyk starts getting the respect she deserves as a UFC champion. She is undoubtedly the best striker in the women’s division and may be the best striker overall on the UFC roster. Joanna has the second most title defenses currently of a UFC champion and if that doesn’t earn her a top three spot on the list I don’t know what will.

If top three is a little too rich for your blood, that’s understandable. But there is no way she should be outside of the top five and there is no arguing that. As Khabib would say, “This is number one bullsh*t!”

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