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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC 203: Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem

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A funny thing has happened recently- we had gone 34 events without seeing a negative Dwyer Score from September 2015 (UFC Fight Night: Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson scored -5) up until last month. Now we have seen 3 consecutive events with negative scores, as UFC 203 checks in with a score of -1. It’s the lowest-scoring PPV event since I started records, and it’s tied with last week’s Hamburg event for the second-worst scoring event of 2016.

So why such a low score? Well we have multiple fighters entering the card off significant losing streaks; Jessica Eye (-3), CB Dolloway (-3), Bethe Correira (-2) and Sean Spencer (-2) all enter the event on the back of more than one consecutive loss whilst Fabrício Werdum, Travis Browne, Urijah Faber, Caio Magalhães, Brad Tavares, Yancy Medeiros and Francimar Barroso are all coming off a solitary loss, each contributing -1 to the card.

The fighter entering the card on the greatest win-streak is Alistair Overeem (+4), followed closely by the champion, Stipe Miocic and Jimmie Rivera (both +3). Both Overeem and Miocic last tasted defeat in late-2014 and neither have looked back since.

The fighters entering the card with the worst momentum are the aforementioned Jessica Eye and CB Dolloway. Eye has recorded 1 victory in 6 UFC bouts, and you have to assume that a fourth consecutive defeat for either fighter would see them leave the promotion.

The Big Contributors

Alistair Overeem +4 : Overeem’s current streak includes victories over Stefan Struve, Roy Nelson, Junior dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski- finishing each of those opponents via TKO/KO except Nelson. It could be argued that if we’d seen today’s smarter, more calculated version of Overeem in his Ben Rothwell, Travis Browne and Antônio Silva fights (all fights he’d been handily winning before being TKO’d) this streak could be +9.

Stipe Miocic +3 : Looking to make the first successful defence of his UFC heavyweight title, Saturday’s hometown hero isn’t on a bad streak of his own, finishing Fabrício Werdum, Andrei Arlovski and Mark Hunt all via TKO/KO. Miocic’s two career defeats come from men Overeem has beaten in his current streak, so it’s fortunate for the champ that MMA math never works out.

Jimmie Rivera +3 : Rivera’s UFC winning streak may stand at 3, but his overall MMA record (exhibition bouts excluded) boasts 18 consecutive victories. In Urijah Faber, however, he faces a man who has played spoiler to young up-and-comers before. Alex Caceres, Michael McDonald and most famously, Dominick Cruz can attest to that.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC 203 Miocic vs Overeem -1

UFC FN Arlovski vs Barnett -1

UFC FN Condit vs Maia -2

UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor II +23

UFC FN Rodríguez vs Caceres +11

Update: following the withdrawal of CB Dolloway from the card just hours before the event and the subsequent scrapping of his bout with Francimar Barroso, the Dwyer Score for this event improves to +3


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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2017 IMMAF World Championships set to be streamed live on IOS and Android app

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This years IMMAF World Championships in Bahrain is only 4 days away now and competitors from around the world are preparing themselves for what will be an extraordinary event and opportunity to make themselves known. The prestigious event is being hosted by the BMMAF under the patronage of His Highness Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa.

For fans around the world good news came today as they will be able to watch their favourite amateur athlete take to the cage in the Khalifa Sports City Arena via an app. The BahrainTV app will be streaming all of the fights live for fans to watch at home or even on the go on their phone. You can also keep up to date via MyNextMatch.com for all relevant info for the event.

The links for the BahrainTV app are as follows:

Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=bh.iaa.bahraintv&hl=en

IOS: https://itunes.apple.com/ie/app/bahrain-tv/id992105518?mt=8

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*Live Updates* UFC Gdsank Official Results

Harry Davies

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The UFC hosted their second event in the country of Poland, as UFC Gdsank took place at the Ergo Arena. The card was headlined by a welterweight fight between Donald Cerrone and Darren Till.

Cerrone (32-9) was coming off a close unanimous decision loss to former 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler in July. It was the only time in “Cowboy’s” MMA career that he had suffered consecutive losses.

Till (15-0-1) improved his undefeated record in September, defeating Bojan Veličković by unanimous decision. It was a case of old school vs. new school in this headliner, as the up and comer Till hoped to secure the biggest win of his career over Cerrone.


MAIN CARD – UFC Fight Pass – 8PM BST

  • Donald Cerrone (32-9) vs. Darren Till (15-0-1) – Welterweight bout
    • Result: Darren Till def. Donald Cerrone via TKO (punches) Round 1 – 4:20
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-3) – Women’s strawweight bout
    • Result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Jodie Esquibel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Jan Blachowicz (20-7) vs. Devin Clark (8-2) – Light heavyweight bout
    • Result: Jan Błachowicz def. Devin Clark via SUB (rear-naked choke) Round 2 – 3:02
  • Oskar Piechota (10-0) vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-3) – Middleweight bout
    • ResultOskar Piechota def. Jonathan Wilson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

(more…)

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*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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