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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett

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The Dwyer Score for the UFC’s debut in Hamburg is a somewhat underwhelming -1.

The event certainly has some star fighters, especially for a Fight Night event, but none that are necessarily riding a huge wave of momentum at the moment. This is the second consecutive event where we’ve seen a negative Dwyer Score, and only the third time we’ve had a negative score since I started scoring events at UFC 189.

This score ranks in 44th place of the 46 events I’ve scored. Big names like Andrei Arlovski, Alexander Gustafsson, Josh Barnett and Ryan Bader (on respective streaks of -2, -2, -1 and -1) are contributing more in name-recognition than serious divisional implications at the moment. There’s plenty to look forward to this weekend, but it’s doubtful any results will carry immediate ramifications in their respective title pictures.

The fighter coming into the event with the greatest momentum is Ilir Latifi (+3), followed closely by Nick Hein and Rustam Khabilov (both +2). Jan Błachowicz, Tae Hyun Bang, Scott Askham and Ashlee Evans-Smith (all +1) are the other fighters entering this card off the back of a UFC win, with the remaining 15 fighters either coming off a loss or making their promotional debuts.

Entering the event with the worst momentum are two men who had serious title aspirations in late 2015; the aforementioned Arlovski and Gustafsson (both -2). Gustafsson is still only one fight removed from a title-shot but you have to imagine it would take more than a victory over Błachowicz to get him back into the title picture.

The Big Contributors

Ilir Latifi +3 : 3 consecutive victories, 5 wins in his last 6, and 4 of those 5 victories coming via first-round stoppage. It’s fair to say things are going pretty well for Latifi at the moment. Ryan Bader undoubtedly represents a step-up in class from those last 6 bouts, a victory here would be the biggest in ‘The Bricklayer’s’ career.

Andrei Arlovski -2 : In 2011 Arlovski went on a spell of 4 consecutive defeats, 3 of those losses coming via KO. He followed that with a run of 11 wins in 12 bouts, the lone loss coming against UFC light-heavyweight title contender Anthony Johnson. That said, I’m hesitant to write off Arlovski’s ability to compete at this level and still score victories over ranked opponents, but it is starting to look like his career could be winding down (again). If Arlovski still holds UFC title aspirations, a victory over Josh Barnett on Saturday is a must.

Rustam Khabilov +2 : Khabilov looked solid in back-to-back wins over Norman Parke and Chris Wade, always looking in control in both bouts, even with a slight moment of flying switch-kick shaped adversity in the Wade fight. Khabilov is 5-2 in the UFC and still some way off the kind of stature that saw him headline a UFC card against Benson Henderson in 2014, but adding another win to his current streak in the form of Leandro Silva would be a step in the right direction.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Arlovski vs Barnett -1

UFC FN Condit vs Maia -2

UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor II +23

UFC FN Rodríguez vs Caceres +11

UFC 201 Lawler vs Woodley +12


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Events

*Live Updates* UFC Gdsank Official Results

Harry Davies

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The UFC hosted their second event in the country of Poland, as UFC Gdsank took place at the Ergo Arena. The card was headlined by a welterweight fight between Donald Cerrone and Darren Till.

Cerrone (32-9) was coming off a close unanimous decision loss to former 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler in July. It was the only time in “Cowboy’s” MMA career that he had suffered consecutive losses.

Till (15-0-1) improved his undefeated record in September, defeating Bojan Veličković by unanimous decision. It was a case of old school vs. new school in this headliner, as the up and comer Till hoped to secure the biggest win of his career over Cerrone.


MAIN CARD – UFC Fight Pass – 8PM BST

  • Donald Cerrone (32-9) vs. Darren Till (15-0-1) – Welterweight bout
    • Result: Darren Till def. Donald Cerrone via TKO (punches) Round 1 – 4:20
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-3) – Women’s strawweight bout
    • Result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Jodie Esquibel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Jan Blachowicz (20-7) vs. Devin Clark (8-2) – Light heavyweight bout
    • Result: Jan Błachowicz def. Devin Clark via SUB (rear-naked choke) Round 2 – 3:02
  • Oskar Piechota (10-0) vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-3) – Middleweight bout
    • ResultOskar Piechota def. Jonathan Wilson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

(more…)

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Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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Bellator

Bellator 185- How to Watch, Times and Fight Card

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Bellator is once again heading to Mohegan Sun in Uncasville Connecticut, and this time they are bringing with them one of the most anticipated former UFC fighter turned Bellator stars’ debut. Gegard Mousasi will be making his first appearance in the Bellator cage against a former Bellator champion in Alexander Shlemenko. Although this event has lost some of its star power over the last several weeks, it is still stacked and you can bet that the main event will bring some fireworks.

Earlier in the month, it was announced that King Mo had suffered an injury that had forced him out of his co-main event fight with former middleweight champion Liam McGeary. Bellator worked quickly to secure a replacement opponent for McGeary in Bubba McDaniels. Unfortunately for McDaniels and the fans alike, McGeary had later suffered an injury of his own and the fight was removed from the card.

This left a spot open in the co-main event slot, which would be filled by a welterweight matchup between Brennan Ward and David Rickels. Just four days out from the fight, Bellator announced that Ward had also become injured and the fight has been removed from the card as well. The main card has been shuffled around and the welterweight bout between Neiman Gracie and Zak Bucia will now serve as the co-main event.

Main Card- Spike TV (US/Canada) Spike UK (UK)- 9 pm EDT, 6 pm PDT, 2 pm UK

  • Middleweight Main Event: Gegard Mousasi (42-6-2) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (56-9, 1 NC)
  • Welterweight Feature Bout: Neiman Gracie (6-0) vs. Zak Bucia (18-8)
  • Women’s Flyweight Feature Bout: Heather Hardy (1-0) vs. Kristina Williams (Debut)
  • Lightweight Feature Bout: Ryan Quinn (13-7) vs. Marcus Surin (4-0)
  • Women’s Flyweight Feature Bout: Ana Julaton (2-2) vs. Lisa Blaine (1-0)

Preliminary Card- Live Stream (MMA Latest New)- 7 pm EDT, 4 pm PDT, 12 pm UK

  • 195 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Jordan Young (6-0) vs. Alec Hooben (5-3)
  • Middleweight Preliminary Bout: Costello van Steenis (8-1) vs. Steve Skrzat (8-9)
  • Welterweight Preliminary Bout: Vinicius de Jesus (5-1) vs. Joaquin Buckley (7-1)
  • Lightweight Preliminary Bout: John Beneduce (2-1) vs. Dean Hancock (2-1)
  • Featherweight Preliminary Bout: Timothy Wheeler (1-4) vs. Pete Rogers (2-4)
  • 150 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Don Shainis (3-1) vs. Matthew Denning (5-6)
  • 150 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Frank Sforza (6-0) vs. Vovka Clay (3-2)
  • Lightweight Preliminary Bout: Kevin Carrier (Pro Debut) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (Pro Debut)
  • Flyweight Preliminary Bout: John Lopez (6-4) vs. Billy Giovanella (9-5)
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