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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia

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The card with the lowest momentum since I started scoring events at UFC 189 was UFC Fight Night: Josh Barnett vs Roy Nelson in Japan (-5). Barnett and Nelson were supported by Uriah Hall and Gegard Mousasi, and underneath them there were cameos from Asian stars like Kyoji Horiguchi and Takeya Mizugaki, but generally it was not the most stacked card.

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia comes just short of taking that mantle, with a Dwyer Score of -2.

Alongside the aforementioned Japan event, it is one of just two events to ever post a negative Dwyer Score. That ranks it in 44th of the 45 events I’ve scored, and it’s the lowest-scoring event in 2016. Actually, before the last-minute postponement of the Marlon Vera-Ning Guangyou fight, this event’s score was even lower (-4).

So what makes this card’s score so low? Well we only have two fighters coming into this event off the back of more than one UFC victory; Demian Maia (+5) and Bec Rawlings (+2), and 9 of the 17 fighters eligible to post a score are coming off at least one defeat, including Anthony Pettis (-3) and Paige VanZant (-1). Pettis is the fighter coming into the event with the worst momentum, whilst Maia is coming into the event with the greatest form by some distance.

The greatest momentum-differential on the card can be found in the main event, where Carlos Condit (-1) meets Maia on his previously mentioned +5 streak. At a glance, it may look like unusual matchmaking, but Condit’s loss was a razor-thin decision defeat to then-champion Robbie Lawler back in January, a decision that many (including myself) felt should have gone the other way.

Another interesting side-note to Saturday’s event, it’s the first card to have seen the return of any fighter who competed on the landmark UFC 200 event, with Jim Miller and Joe Lauzon, both victorious at UFC 200 with first-round TKO’s against Takanori Gomi and Diego Sanchez respectively, meeting in a rematch of their 2012 fight of the year contender.

The Big Contributors

Demian Maia +5 : The most recent quartet of Maia’s five-fight winning streak includes Matt Brown, Gunnar Nelson, Neil Magny and Ryan LaFlare. These are all high-level fighters who have headlined UFC events. He’s 8-2 as a welterweight in the UFC, his losses coming via split decision to Jake Shields and a unanimous decision to Rory MacDonald. A victory against a man who has long been in the UFC welterweight title picture in Carlos Condit will see him vault into the UFC’s murky welterweight title plans.

Anthony Pettis -3 : How the mighty have fallen. That may sound extreme but it has been an extreme change in fortune for Pettis. In March 2015 he was UFC lightweight champion and had finished Joe Lauzon, Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez in his last four fights. His three fights since have all been decision losses, to Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza. A drop to featherweight can hopefully kick-start a resurgence as he takes on Charles Oliveira at 145 lbs.

Kevin Casey D : At this point, I just hope to see some sort of result on the board. He’s recorded just 1 victory in his last 5 bouts (sounds worrying, right?) yet has suffered just 1 defeat in those last 5 bouts too (suddenly that same streak sounds pretty decent)! You read that correctly- a draw in his last fight, as well as two no-contests (one for a positive drugs test and one after he was unable to continue following an eye-poke), mean that there has only been the victor in 2 of Casey’s last 5 fights. Here’s hoping either Casey or Sam Alvey get a recorded result on Saturday!


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Condit vs Maia -2

UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor II +23

UFC FN Rodríguez vs Caceres +11

UFC 201 Lawler vs Woodley +12

UFC on FOX Holm vs Shevchenko +2


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Events

*Live Updates* UFC Gdsank Official Results

Harry Davies

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The UFC hosted their second event in the country of Poland, as UFC Gdsank took place at the Ergo Arena. The card was headlined by a welterweight fight between Donald Cerrone and Darren Till.

Cerrone (32-9) was coming off a close unanimous decision loss to former 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler in July. It was the only time in “Cowboy’s” MMA career that he had suffered consecutive losses.

Till (15-0-1) improved his undefeated record in September, defeating Bojan Veličković by unanimous decision. It was a case of old school vs. new school in this headliner, as the up and comer Till hoped to secure the biggest win of his career over Cerrone.


MAIN CARD – UFC Fight Pass – 8PM BST

  • Donald Cerrone (32-9) vs. Darren Till (15-0-1) – Welterweight bout
    • Result: Darren Till def. Donald Cerrone via TKO (punches) Round 1 – 4:20
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-3) – Women’s strawweight bout
    • Result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Jodie Esquibel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Jan Blachowicz (20-7) vs. Devin Clark (8-2) – Light heavyweight bout
    • Result: Jan Błachowicz def. Devin Clark via SUB (rear-naked choke) Round 2 – 3:02
  • Oskar Piechota (10-0) vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-3) – Middleweight bout
    • ResultOskar Piechota def. Jonathan Wilson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

(more…)

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Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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Bellator

Bellator 185- How to Watch, Times and Fight Card

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Bellator is once again heading to Mohegan Sun in Uncasville Connecticut, and this time they are bringing with them one of the most anticipated former UFC fighter turned Bellator stars’ debut. Gegard Mousasi will be making his first appearance in the Bellator cage against a former Bellator champion in Alexander Shlemenko. Although this event has lost some of its star power over the last several weeks, it is still stacked and you can bet that the main event will bring some fireworks.

Earlier in the month, it was announced that King Mo had suffered an injury that had forced him out of his co-main event fight with former middleweight champion Liam McGeary. Bellator worked quickly to secure a replacement opponent for McGeary in Bubba McDaniels. Unfortunately for McDaniels and the fans alike, McGeary had later suffered an injury of his own and the fight was removed from the card.

This left a spot open in the co-main event slot, which would be filled by a welterweight matchup between Brennan Ward and David Rickels. Just four days out from the fight, Bellator announced that Ward had also become injured and the fight has been removed from the card as well. The main card has been shuffled around and the welterweight bout between Neiman Gracie and Zak Bucia will now serve as the co-main event.

Main Card- Spike TV (US/Canada) Spike UK (UK)- 9 pm EDT, 6 pm PDT, 2 pm UK

  • Middleweight Main Event: Gegard Mousasi (42-6-2) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (56-9, 1 NC)
  • Welterweight Feature Bout: Neiman Gracie (6-0) vs. Zak Bucia (18-8)
  • Women’s Flyweight Feature Bout: Heather Hardy (1-0) vs. Kristina Williams (Debut)
  • Lightweight Feature Bout: Ryan Quinn (13-7) vs. Marcus Surin (4-0)
  • Women’s Flyweight Feature Bout: Ana Julaton (2-2) vs. Lisa Blaine (1-0)

Preliminary Card- Live Stream (MMA Latest New)- 7 pm EDT, 4 pm PDT, 12 pm UK

  • 195 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Jordan Young (6-0) vs. Alec Hooben (5-3)
  • Middleweight Preliminary Bout: Costello van Steenis (8-1) vs. Steve Skrzat (8-9)
  • Welterweight Preliminary Bout: Vinicius de Jesus (5-1) vs. Joaquin Buckley (7-1)
  • Lightweight Preliminary Bout: John Beneduce (2-1) vs. Dean Hancock (2-1)
  • Featherweight Preliminary Bout: Timothy Wheeler (1-4) vs. Pete Rogers (2-4)
  • 150 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Don Shainis (3-1) vs. Matthew Denning (5-6)
  • 150 lb. Catchweight Preliminary Bout: Frank Sforza (6-0) vs. Vovka Clay (3-2)
  • Lightweight Preliminary Bout: Kevin Carrier (Pro Debut) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (Pro Debut)
  • Flyweight Preliminary Bout: John Lopez (6-4) vs. Billy Giovanella (9-5)
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