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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Cristiane ‘Cyborg’ Justino vs. Lina Lansberg

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Finally, for the first time since UFC 202, I’ve been able to write a column about an event with a positive Dwyer Score. It’s a fair-to-middling score of +8 this week, but after the unprecedented run we’ve been on over the last few events, that number feels like +100. Saturday’s event in Brasilia ranks 8th of the 16 Fight Night events in 2016, and 19th of the 28 events in total.

Having UFC debutant Lina Lansberg headlining the card undoubtedly hurts the event’s score, as a main event spot often saved for a fighter riding a wave of momentum, commonly on a significant win streak, is contributing nothing to the score.

The largest win-streak on the card belongs to Francisco Trinaldo (+6), supported by Stevie Ray and Rani Yahya (both +3) in the bridesmaid positions. The fighters entering the card with the least momentum are Renan Barão, Antônio Silva, and Erick Silva (all -2)- three big-name Brazilian fighters who have headlined a combined 11 past events between them.

With at least 1 Brazilian in every fight on the card, this event feels like a slightly diluted version of the star-studded UFC 198 card earlier this year- an event which had a Dwyer Score of +43 and included a host of Brazilian legends. On that night the home favourite was knocked out in the first round of the night’s main event. You’d get great odds on a repeat of that this Saturday night.

The Big Contributors

Francisco Trinaldo +6: Riding a 6-fight win streak that includes victories over Norman Parke, Chad Laprise, Ross Pearson and Yancy Medeiros, Trinaldo seems to be in the prime of his career despite turning 38 last month. Trinaldo could be in a race with Father Time to earn a title shot before retirement beckons, but increasing his winning streak to 7 with a victory over Paul Felder would be a big step towards that goal.

Cristiane Justino +1: Her contribution to the score may be modest (as she has only competed once for the UFC) but her momentum is certainly not. ‘Cyborg’ has won all of her last 17 bouts (although one was later ruled a No Contest due to a drugs test failure), and boasts 14 KO/TKO victories on her record. She’s won her last four by TKO/KO in the first round, and really if Lina Lansberg were to escape that she’d be surprising most. It’s hard to say what’s next for a woman without a weight class, and at the time of writing ‘Cyborg’ is yet to weigh-in following a strenuous weight cut, but we’ll all be watching whatever it is.

Antônio Silva -2: ‘Bigfoot’ has just 1 victory in his last 7 bouts, and the 5 losses in that spell have all came via first-round TKO/KO stoppage- another loss here would surely see him cut from the promotion. In Roy Nelson, he’s facing a man whose 8 UFC victories include 7 TKO/KO stoppages. The 40-year-old Nelson only holds 2 victories in his last 8 bouts, but I struggle to see Silva avoiding a big shot for 3 rounds here.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Justino vs. Lansberg +8

UFC FN Poirier vs. Johnson: -2

UFC 203 Miocic vs. Overeem: +3

UFC FN Arlovski vs. Barnett: -1

UFC FC Condit vs. Maia: -2


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Events

2017 IMMAF World Championships set to be streamed live on IOS and Android app

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This years IMMAF World Championships in Bahrain is only 4 days away now and competitors from around the world are preparing themselves for what will be an extraordinary event and opportunity to make themselves known. The prestigious event is being hosted by the BMMAF under the patronage of His Highness Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa.

For fans around the world good news came today as they will be able to watch their favourite amateur athlete take to the cage in the Khalifa Sports City Arena via an app. The BahrainTV app will be streaming all of the fights live for fans to watch at home or even on the go on their phone. You can also keep up to date via MyNextMatch.com for all relevant info for the event.

The links for the BahrainTV app are as follows:

Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=bh.iaa.bahraintv&hl=en

IOS: https://itunes.apple.com/ie/app/bahrain-tv/id992105518?mt=8

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*Live Updates* UFC Gdsank Official Results

Harry Davies

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The UFC hosted their second event in the country of Poland, as UFC Gdsank took place at the Ergo Arena. The card was headlined by a welterweight fight between Donald Cerrone and Darren Till.

Cerrone (32-9) was coming off a close unanimous decision loss to former 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler in July. It was the only time in “Cowboy’s” MMA career that he had suffered consecutive losses.

Till (15-0-1) improved his undefeated record in September, defeating Bojan Veličković by unanimous decision. It was a case of old school vs. new school in this headliner, as the up and comer Till hoped to secure the biggest win of his career over Cerrone.


MAIN CARD – UFC Fight Pass – 8PM BST

  • Donald Cerrone (32-9) vs. Darren Till (15-0-1) – Welterweight bout
    • Result: Darren Till def. Donald Cerrone via TKO (punches) Round 1 – 4:20
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-3) – Women’s strawweight bout
    • Result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz def. Jodie Esquibel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Jan Blachowicz (20-7) vs. Devin Clark (8-2) – Light heavyweight bout
    • Result: Jan Błachowicz def. Devin Clark via SUB (rear-naked choke) Round 2 – 3:02
  • Oskar Piechota (10-0) vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-3) – Middleweight bout
    • ResultOskar Piechota def. Jonathan Wilson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

(more…)

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*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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