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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: John Dodson vs. John Lineker

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This weekend’s card scores a respectable +7 on the Dwyer Scale, despite being hampered by injuries. The withdrawals of Brian Ortega (+3), Sergio Pettis (+2) and Bobby Green (-2) have undoubtedly damaged the card’s depth and harmed the event’s original Dwyer Score of +10. Nevertheless, this card is still headlined by an extremely intriguing main event, and its score of +7 ranks it in 9th place of the 17 Fight Nights this year. That’s a score bettered by only one card (last week’s Brasilia show) of the last 6.

It’s the Fight Pass prelims that somewhat hamstring this card’s score- no fighters in the first four fights are coming off a UFC victory. 7 of the 8 fighters on the Fight Pass prelims are coming off a loss, and the 8th is making his promotional debut. If we separated the Fox Sports prelims and main card from the Fight Pass prelims, that mini-event would boast a Dwyer Score of +14.

The fighter with the greatest momentum on Saturday will be John Lineker (+5), with Louis Smolka (+4) in second-place. Unusually, no fighter on the card is contributing less than -1 to the event, though 10 fighters do share that score.

The Big Contributors

John Lineker +5: Lineker has now won 5 fights in a row (the last 3 of which were contested at bantamweight), a streak that includes wins over Michael McDonald, Rob Font, and Ian McCall. This streak leaves Lineker 9-1 in his last ten UFC bouts. The next bantamweight title shot seems to be going to either Cody Garbrandt or T.J. Dillashaw, but a win on Saturday would catapult Lineker straight into those discussions.

Louis Smolka +4: Considering the last man to be booked for a flyweight title shot was Wilson Reis, coming off a 1 fight winning streak (over Dustin Ortiz), Smolka was surely in line for the next title shot, had he defeated Saturday’s original opponent, Sergio Pettis. Even with relative inexperience of late replacement Brandon Moreno, I wouldn’t rule out a victory earning ‘Da Last Samurai’ a shot at the gold, as the UFC searches for fresh contenders for their dominant flyweight champion, Demetrious Johnson.

Will Brooks +1: Some may have expected higher-profile opponents for the former Bellator champion Brooks’ first couple of UFC bouts than Ross Pearson and Alex Oliveira, considering the big fights other champions of smaller promotions (Eddie Alvarez, Gilbert Melendez…) have received upon entering the UFC. For whatever reason, Brooks’ entry to the UFC doesn’t seem to have come with the same level of expectation as some others have, and although ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira is certainly no walkover, I do look forward to seeing Brooks’ matched up against higher ranked competition.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Dodson vs. Lineker +7

UFC FN Justino vs. Lansberg +8

UFC FN Poirier vs. Johnson: -2

UFC 203 Miocic vs. Overeem: +3

UFC FN Arlovski vs. Barnett: -1


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs. Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Interviews

Exclusive: Derek Brunson: “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up”

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Derek Brunson fought Anderson Silva back in February of this year, at UFC 208. Brunson would go on to lose the fight by controversial unanimous decision. However, the controversies didn’t stop at the questionable decision, Brunson also claims Silva was greasing during the fight. The Wilmington, North Carolina native, posted about it on Twitter a few days ago:

Speaking with MMA Latest, Brunson explained why he believes Silva was greasing during the fight. “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up. Every time I grabbed him he was just slipping out of everything, and his takedown defense was really good that night. I was definitely curious to know why he was very slippery, which I definitely think he had some kind of substance on his body. He knows I’m a wrestler obviously, he’s an old, savvy veteran, so he was definitely trying to play all the rules and be very strategic, and make it harder for a wrestler to grab him.”

Brunson is set to face Lyoto Machida come October 28, when asked about whether he was worried about Machida greasing, considering Gegard Mousasi accused him of doing so in their fight, Brunson admitted he wasn’t too worried.

Well I’m not too worried, but like I said, I put it out there because I know they’re friends and I know, obviously, that’s kind of what the guys do when they know they’re fighting a wrestler. They want to lube their body up really good to make it hard to grab hold, Anderson did a great job defending my takedowns. It’s because he was all greased up so he was able to stop a lot of them. When I grab guys in the clinch, it’s very tough for them to get away and I’m pretty good with my Greco takedown. He was pretty much pulling through my clinch when I had a tight grip on him and if you have some kind of substance on your body it’s easy to pull them.”

Neither Silva nor his management have commented on the greasing allegations. Anderson Silva makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum later this year, in China. While Brunson makes his return to the Octagon on October 28th, in Brazil, where he looks to add Lyoto Machida’s name to his impressive list of victories.

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Announcement

Ovince Saint Preux Steps in to Face Corey Anderson at UFC 217

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UFC 217 just got even more interesting. Earlier this week, Patrick Cummins pulled out of his light heavyweight matchup with Corey Anderson due to a Staph infection. Corey “Overtime” Anderson was not happy with his opponents decision, even calling out his opponent on Instagram asking how Cummins could, “call it quits so far from fight night”.

The UFC left Anderson on the card, and he found an opponent through the magic of Twitter. Ovince Saint Preux tweeted out directly to Anderson stating:

It didn’t take long for Anderson to respond agreeing to the fight, tagging Mick Maynard and Dana White in his response.

Only a few short hours later, the fight announcement came from the official UFC twitter account.

 

This top 10 Light Heavyweight matchup should add to an already amazing card coming in November at Madison Square Garden. Saint Preux is coming off of back to back wins both due to the very rare von flue choke, he finds himself ranked #7th in the latest edition of the 205-pound rankings. Corey “Overtime” Anderson is 4-2 in his last 6 fights, but is coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Jimi Manuwa in March.

With such a exciting fight added to this card, what do you see happening November 4th?  Will Corey Anderson bounce back and look to jump into the top 5 of the rankings, or will Ovince Saint Preux go for a third straight von flue choke? Let us know.

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Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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