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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Ryan Bader vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira II

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This weekend’s second event in 24 hours posts a solid Dwyer Score of +15. It’s over twice the score that the Belfast card (+7) posts and considerably above both 2016’s +8.25 average for non-PPV cards and the +13.4 average for all events. For those interested, the average score for strictly PPV events stands at +24.64. This score ranks Saturday’s São Paulo event 5th out of 24 non-PPV events this year, and 14th of 35 events overall.

Krzysztof Jotko (+4) is the highest-contributing fighter on the card, with TUF 21 winner Kamaru Usman (+3) close behind. Thomas Almeida, Cláudia Gadelha, Warlley Alves, Johnny Eduardo, Manvel Gamburyan and Francimar Barroso are all pulling up the rear on -1; no fighter enters the card off the back of consecutive UFC losses. The four point difference between the aforementioned Usman and Alves represents the biggest gulf in momentum on the card.

It’s been over 5 years since Ryan Bader defeated Antônio Rogério Nogueira via unanimous decision back at UFC 119. Bader is 9-5 since that meeting, while Nogueira is 3-3. The two share 6 common opponents in UFC competition (Anthony Johnson, Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, Phil Davis, Jason Brilz and Vladimir Matyushenko) and have 28 career UFC bouts between them.

The Big Contributors

Krzysztof Jotko +4: Jotko has just one career loss to his name and his current four-fight winning streak is highlighted by a Performance of the Night winning KO of Tamdan McCrory in June. Thales Leites, in Brazil no less, is undoubtedly the sternest challenge of the Pole’s career so far.

Kamaru Usman +3:  The Nigeria-born Blackzillians product is coming off the back of two unanimous decision victories over Alexander Yakovlev and Leon Edwards. Usman fights outside of the USA for the first time in his career, facing a Warlley Alves looking to rebound from a surprising defeat to Bryan Barbarena in May. A victory in this fight could see Usman given a top 15 ranked opponent in his next bout.

Justin Scoggins +2: The 24-year-old from South Carolina is now 4-2 in UFC competition and looking to build on recent victories over Josh Sampo and Ray Borg. Scoggins, whose karate style is always fun to watch, was just 22 when he suffered both of his career defeats, to John Moraga and Dustin Ortiz. I’m looking forward to seeing Scoggins’ improvements next time he faces a ranked opponent.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Bader vs. Nogueira II: +15

UFC FN Mousasi vs. Hall II: +7

UFC 205 Alvarez vs. McGregor: +46

TUF LA Finale dos Anjos vs. Ferguson: +16

UFC 204 Bisping vs. Henderson II: +17


Top 5 Dwyer Scores (all-time)

UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor: +62

UFC 165 Jones vs. Gustafsson: +47

UFC 205 Alvarez vs. McGregor: +46

UFC 178 Johnson vs. Cariaso: +44

UFC: 198 Werdum vs. Miocic: +43


The Dwyer Score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a three fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. No Contests, Draws or bouts with other promotions reset your streak to 0. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the combined momentum of fighters heading into a specific event.

As you may imagine, pay-per-view events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos was a +4, whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs. Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA promotion. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Interviews

Exclusive: Derek Brunson: “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up”

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Derek Brunson fought Anderson Silva back in February of this year, at UFC 208. Brunson would go on to lose the fight by controversial unanimous decision. However, the controversies didn’t stop at the questionable decision, Brunson also claims Silva was greasing during the fight. The Wilmington, North Carolina native, posted about it on Twitter a few days ago:

Speaking with MMA Latest, Brunson explained why he believes Silva was greasing during the fight. “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up. Every time I grabbed him he was just slipping out of everything, and his takedown defense was really good that night. I was definitely curious to know why he was very slippery, which I definitely think he had some kind of substance on his body. He knows I’m a wrestler obviously, he’s an old, savvy veteran, so he was definitely trying to play all the rules and be very strategic, and make it harder for a wrestler to grab him.”

Brunson is set to face Lyoto Machida come October 28, when asked about whether he was worried about Machida greasing, considering Gegard Mousasi accused him of doing so in their fight, Brunson admitted he wasn’t too worried.

Well I’m not too worried, but like I said, I put it out there because I know they’re friends and I know, obviously, that’s kind of what the guys do when they know they’re fighting a wrestler. They want to lube their body up really good to make it hard to grab hold, Anderson did a great job defending my takedowns. It’s because he was all greased up so he was able to stop a lot of them. When I grab guys in the clinch, it’s very tough for them to get away and I’m pretty good with my Greco takedown. He was pretty much pulling through my clinch when I had a tight grip on him and if you have some kind of substance on your body it’s easy to pull them.”

Neither Silva nor his management have commented on the greasing allegations. Anderson Silva makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum later this year, in China. While Brunson makes his return to the Octagon on October 28th, in Brazil, where he looks to add Lyoto Machida’s name to his impressive list of victories.

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Announcement

Ovince Saint Preux Steps in to Face Corey Anderson at UFC 217

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UFC 217 just got even more interesting. Earlier this week, Patrick Cummins pulled out of his light heavyweight matchup with Corey Anderson due to a Staph infection. Corey “Overtime” Anderson was not happy with his opponents decision, even calling out his opponent on Instagram asking how Cummins could, “call it quits so far from fight night”.

The UFC left Anderson on the card, and he found an opponent through the magic of Twitter. Ovince Saint Preux tweeted out directly to Anderson stating:

It didn’t take long for Anderson to respond agreeing to the fight, tagging Mick Maynard and Dana White in his response.

Only a few short hours later, the fight announcement came from the official UFC twitter account.

 

This top 10 Light Heavyweight matchup should add to an already amazing card coming in November at Madison Square Garden. Saint Preux is coming off of back to back wins both due to the very rare von flue choke, he finds himself ranked #7th in the latest edition of the 205-pound rankings. Corey “Overtime” Anderson is 4-2 in his last 6 fights, but is coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Jimi Manuwa in March.

With such a exciting fight added to this card, what do you see happening November 4th?  Will Corey Anderson bounce back and look to jump into the top 5 of the rankings, or will Ovince Saint Preux go for a third straight von flue choke? Let us know.

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Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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