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Measuring Momentum – The Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Vitor Belfort vs Kelvin Gastelum

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UFC Fight Night: Vitor Belfort vs. Kelvin Gastelum checks in with a huge Dwyer Score of +27, making it the highest-scoring of the 106 Fight Night events in UFC’s 23-year history.

Only 1 non-PPV event of any variety has ever posted a higher score; UFC on FOX 7 back in 2013, a card that featured Benson Henderson, Gilbert Melendez, Daniel Cormier, Nate Diaz, Matt Brown, Chad Mendes, Joseph Benavidez, T.J. Dillashaw, and Yoel Romero, to name just a few.

Here’s how UFC FN: Belfort vs. Gastelum compares to events over the last 12 months

This score of +27 not only blows the average Fight Night score of +5.6 out of the water, it’s also way above the +12.3 average for all events, and significantly higher than the +22.7 average for strictly PPV events.

The highest individual scorer at the event is Francisco Trinaldo (+7), ahead of Rani Yahya (+4) in second-place. The lowest scorers on the card are Vitor Belfort, Josh Burkman, and Garreth McLellan (all -2), three of just four fighters at the event coming off a UFC defeat.

The Breakdown

The Big Contributors

Francisco Trinaldo +7: 11-3 in the UFC, the 38-year-old Brazilian’s seven-fight winning streak is currently bettered by only Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson in the UFC lightweight division, and includes victories over Paul Felder, Ross Pearson, and Chad Laprise. A win over Kevin Lee on Saturday would surely see Trinaldo matched up with a top-5 opponent.

Rani Yahya +4:  Currently enjoying the longest winning streak of his UFC career, Yahya has lost just 2 of his 11 bouts with the promotion, and hasn’t lost a bout in his native Brazil since 2004.

Kevin Lee +3: Lee is 7-1 in his last 8 UFC bouts, looking for a third consecutive stoppage following a TKO win over Jake Matthews and a submission victory over Magomed Mustafaev. Until last November, the 24-year-old had never fought outside of North America, now he will do so for the second time in two fights.

Michel Prazeres +3: Prazeres is 5-2 in the UFC and holds notable wins over Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns. All 7 of his UFC bouts to date have gone to a judges’ decision.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN- Belfort vs. Gastelum: +27

UFC 209- Woodley vs. Thompson: +16

UFC FN- Lewis vs. Browne: +4

UFC 208- Holm vs. de Randamie: +9

UFC FN- Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie: +5


Top 5 Dwyer Scores (all-time)

UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor: +62

UFC 165 Jones vs. Gustafsson: +47

UFC 205 Alvarez vs. McGregor: +46

UFC 178 Johnson vs. Cariaso: +44

UFC 198 Werdum vs. Miocic: +43


Click here for a summary of all of 2016’s Dwyer Scores.


The Dwyer Score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. For example, a fighter on a three fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. No Contests, Draws or bouts with other promotions reset your streak to 0. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the combined momentum of fighters heading into a specific event.

As you may imagine, Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos was a +4, whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs. Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA promotion. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that don’t will not.

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Interviews

Exclusive: Derek Brunson: “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up”

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Derek Brunson fought Anderson Silva back in February of this year, at UFC 208. Brunson would go on to lose the fight by controversial unanimous decision. However, the controversies didn’t stop at the questionable decision, Brunson also claims Silva was greasing during the fight. The Wilmington, North Carolina native, posted about it on Twitter a few days ago:

Speaking with MMA Latest, Brunson explained why he believes Silva was greasing during the fight. “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up. Every time I grabbed him he was just slipping out of everything, and his takedown defense was really good that night. I was definitely curious to know why he was very slippery, which I definitely think he had some kind of substance on his body. He knows I’m a wrestler obviously, he’s an old, savvy veteran, so he was definitely trying to play all the rules and be very strategic, and make it harder for a wrestler to grab him.”

Brunson is set to face Lyoto Machida come October 28, when asked about whether he was worried about Machida greasing, considering Gegard Mousasi accused him of doing so in their fight, Brunson admitted he wasn’t too worried.

Well I’m not too worried, but like I said, I put it out there because I know they’re friends and I know, obviously, that’s kind of what the guys do when they know they’re fighting a wrestler. They want to lube their body up really good to make it hard to grab hold, Anderson did a great job defending my takedowns. It’s because he was all greased up so he was able to stop a lot of them. When I grab guys in the clinch, it’s very tough for them to get away and I’m pretty good with my Greco takedown. He was pretty much pulling through my clinch when I had a tight grip on him and if you have some kind of substance on your body it’s easy to pull them.”

Neither Silva nor his management have commented on the greasing allegations. Anderson Silva makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum later this year, in China. While Brunson makes his return to the Octagon on October 28th, in Brazil, where he looks to add Lyoto Machida’s name to his impressive list of victories.

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Announcement

Ovince Saint Preux Steps in to Face Corey Anderson at UFC 217

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UFC 217 just got even more interesting. Earlier this week, Patrick Cummins pulled out of his light heavyweight matchup with Corey Anderson due to a Staph infection. Corey “Overtime” Anderson was not happy with his opponents decision, even calling out his opponent on Instagram asking how Cummins could, “call it quits so far from fight night”.

The UFC left Anderson on the card, and he found an opponent through the magic of Twitter. Ovince Saint Preux tweeted out directly to Anderson stating:

It didn’t take long for Anderson to respond agreeing to the fight, tagging Mick Maynard and Dana White in his response.

Only a few short hours later, the fight announcement came from the official UFC twitter account.

 

This top 10 Light Heavyweight matchup should add to an already amazing card coming in November at Madison Square Garden. Saint Preux is coming off of back to back wins both due to the very rare von flue choke, he finds himself ranked #7th in the latest edition of the 205-pound rankings. Corey “Overtime” Anderson is 4-2 in his last 6 fights, but is coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Jimi Manuwa in March.

With such a exciting fight added to this card, what do you see happening November 4th?  Will Corey Anderson bounce back and look to jump into the top 5 of the rankings, or will Ovince Saint Preux go for a third straight von flue choke? Let us know.

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Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

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Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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