Connect with us

News

Measuring Momentum- the Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Yair Rodríguez vs. Alex Caceres

Published

on

This week checks in with a Dwyer Score of +11. It’s a good score for a Fight Night card, ranking 4th of this year’s 12 Fight Night events- the highest score for this type of card since the Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt event in May.

Every fighter with any sort of momentum on Saturday night can be found on the main card, in fact, not a single prelim fighter brings a winning streak of more than 1 or a losing streak longer than 1 to the table. The fighter contributing the most to this week’s score is Yair Rodríguez (+4), while the fighter with the least momentum on the card is Thales Leites (-2). The fight on the card containing the greatest momentum differential, with a 5 point swing, is between the aforementioned Leites (-2) and Chris Camozzi (+3).

There are no fewer than 5 fighters making their promotional debuts on this card, which of course isn’t a statistic that is going to help any valuation of UFC momentum. It’s not the most stacked card in the world but it certainly isn’t a weak card either, and in Rodríguez we will be seeing one of the most entertaining prospects in all of MMA.

The Big Contributors

Yair Rodríguez +4 : One of the flashiest, riskiest strikers in the entire promotion, El Pantera could truly be on the cusp of stardom. Aged just 23 and headlining his first UFC event, it looks like the brass has big plans for the Mexican featherweight. In Alex Cacares he will be facing another unorthodox, risk-taking striker in a match-up of styles that clearly caught the UFC matchmakers’ imagination.

Chris Camozzi +3 : It’s 3 wins in a row now for Camozzi as he looks to equal his best UFC winning streak of 4, achieved between 2012 and 2013. Thales Leites is certainly one of the tougher opponents Chris has faced, and the Brazilian will surely be looking to impose his ground game on Camozzi, much like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza did to great success in both 2013 and 2015.

Santiago Ponzinibbio +2 : The Argentine comes into Saturday’s on the event off the back of 2 first-round TKOs over Andreas Ståhl and former TUF winner Court McGee. Ponzinibbio is 4-2 in UFC competition, his two defeats at the hands of Ryan LaFlare and Lorenz Larkin. His opponent, Zak Cummings, is on a 2 fight winning streak of his own, most recently handing Nicolas Dalby his first career defeat. Both men are in good form and a victory here could see them matched up with a top-15 ranked welterweight.


Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN Rodríguez vs Caceres +11

UFC 201 Lawler vs Woodley +12

UFC on FOX Holm vs Shevchenko +2

UFC FN McDonald vs Lineker +10

UFC 200 Tate vs Nunes +19


The Dwyer score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a 3 fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a 2 fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the form of fighters heading into that event.

As you may imagine Pay-Per-View events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC: Rothwell vs Dos Santos was a +4 whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA matchmaking. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

Onnit Primal Bells
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Interviews

Exclusive: Derek Brunson: “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up”

Published

on

Derek Brunson fought Anderson Silva back in February of this year, at UFC 208. Brunson would go on to lose the fight by controversial unanimous decision. However, the controversies didn’t stop at the questionable decision, Brunson also claims Silva was greasing during the fight. The Wilmington, North Carolina native, posted about it on Twitter a few days ago:

Speaking with MMA Latest, Brunson explained why he believes Silva was greasing during the fight. “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up. Every time I grabbed him he was just slipping out of everything, and his takedown defense was really good that night. I was definitely curious to know why he was very slippery, which I definitely think he had some kind of substance on his body. He knows I’m a wrestler obviously, he’s an old, savvy veteran, so he was definitely trying to play all the rules and be very strategic, and make it harder for a wrestler to grab him.”

Brunson is set to face Lyoto Machida come October 28, when asked about whether he was worried about Machida greasing, considering Gegard Mousasi accused him of doing so in their fight, Brunson admitted he wasn’t too worried.

Well I’m not too worried, but like I said, I put it out there because I know they’re friends and I know, obviously, that’s kind of what the guys do when they know they’re fighting a wrestler. They want to lube their body up really good to make it hard to grab hold, Anderson did a great job defending my takedowns. It’s because he was all greased up so he was able to stop a lot of them. When I grab guys in the clinch, it’s very tough for them to get away and I’m pretty good with my Greco takedown. He was pretty much pulling through my clinch when I had a tight grip on him and if you have some kind of substance on your body it’s easy to pull them.”

Neither Silva nor his management have commented on the greasing allegations. Anderson Silva makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum later this year, in China. While Brunson makes his return to the Octagon on October 28th, in Brazil, where he looks to add Lyoto Machida’s name to his impressive list of victories.

Onnit Primal Bells
Continue Reading

Announcement

Ovince Saint Preux Steps in to Face Corey Anderson at UFC 217

Published

on

UFC 217 just got even more interesting. Earlier this week, Patrick Cummins pulled out of his light heavyweight matchup with Corey Anderson due to a Staph infection. Corey “Overtime” Anderson was not happy with his opponents decision, even calling out his opponent on Instagram asking how Cummins could, “call it quits so far from fight night”.

The UFC left Anderson on the card, and he found an opponent through the magic of Twitter. Ovince Saint Preux tweeted out directly to Anderson stating:

It didn’t take long for Anderson to respond agreeing to the fight, tagging Mick Maynard and Dana White in his response.

Only a few short hours later, the fight announcement came from the official UFC twitter account.

 

This top 10 Light Heavyweight matchup should add to an already amazing card coming in November at Madison Square Garden. Saint Preux is coming off of back to back wins both due to the very rare von flue choke, he finds himself ranked #7th in the latest edition of the 205-pound rankings. Corey “Overtime” Anderson is 4-2 in his last 6 fights, but is coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Jimi Manuwa in March.

With such a exciting fight added to this card, what do you see happening November 4th?  Will Corey Anderson bounce back and look to jump into the top 5 of the rankings, or will Ovince Saint Preux go for a third straight von flue choke? Let us know.

Onnit Primal Bells
Continue Reading

Announcement

*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results

Published

on

Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

Onnit Primal Bells
Continue Reading

Trending