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Measuring Momentum- the Dwyer Score of UFC Fight Night: Yair Rodríguez vs. B.J. Penn



Penn vs Yair Rodriguez

We’re starting out 2017 in a record breaking way, folks. At -13, UFC Fight Night: Rodríguez vs. Penn equals the record for the worst Dwyer Score in UFC history. It’s way off 2016’s average of +13.2 and considerably less than 2016’s lowest-scoring card, UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson (-4).

The only other event to score so low in UFC’s 24-year history was UFC on FOX: Shogun vs. Vera, which also scored -13. Coincidentally, Joe Lauzon and John Moraga, who are both set to fight on Sunday, also appeared on the Shogun vs. Vera card. The next lowest scoring events in promotional history are UFC 122: Marquardt vs. Okami and UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller (both -9).

A look at how UFC FN: Rodríguez vs. Penn compares to events’ averages in 2016

Of the 24 fighters on the card, just 5 (Yair Rodríguez, Court McGee, Sergio Pettis, Alex White and Tony Martin) are coming off a UFC victory. 3 fighters are coming off bouts in other promotions whilst the remaining 16 enter the card off the back of at least one UFC defeat.

The fighter on the card with the greatest momentum is Yair Rodríguez (+5). The fighter with the least momentum is Rodríguez’ opponent in the main event, B.J. Penn (-3).

The Breakdown

The Big Contributors

Yair Rodríguez +5: ‘El Pantera’ is 5-0 in UFC competition and is renowned for having one of the most exciting, unique styles in all of MMA. He has scored just 1 UFC stoppage thus far, but last week that stoppage (a flying head kick KO of Andre Fili) was nominated for KO of the year at the 2017 World MMA awards. Rodríguez, who will face a fighter over the age of 30 for the first time in his UFC career on Sunday, has won 3 fight night bonuses in his last 4 bouts and is set to headline his second UFC event at the age of just 24.

Sergio Pettis +2: The younger Pettis brother is 5-2 in UFC competition with all 5 of those victories coming via decision. It doesn’t take too much to put your name in title-shot discussions at flyweight, so a win here over former title contender John Moraga could prove a hugely important one.

B.J. Penn -3: I like to try and focus on the positive streaks here, but I’ll make an exception for B.J. Penn (and I’ve already spotlighted the only two fighters on a winning streak greater than 1). It’s a poor streak, but there’s certainly no shame in losing to Frankie Edgar, Rory MacDonald or Nick Diaz. In fact, B.J. has never lost to someone who wasn’t either a UFC champion or a title contender. The Hawaiian, who still has (tied) the record for most UFC lightweight title defences, has not scored a UFC victory since November 2010.

Last 5 Dwyer Scores

UFC FN- Rodríguez vs. Penn: -13

UFC 207- Nunes vs. Rousey: +17

UFC on FOX- VanZant vs. Waterson: +9

UFC 206- Holloway vs. Pettis: +23

UFC FN- Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov: +12

Top 5 Dwyer Scores (all-time)

UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor: +62

UFC 165 Jones vs. Gustafsson: +47

UFC 205 Alvarez vs. McGregor: +46

UFC 178 Johnson vs. Cariaso: +44

UFC 198 Werdum vs. Miocic: +43

Click here for a summary of all of 2016’s Dwyer Scores.

The Dwyer Score is a simple way of assigning a numeric value to the momentum of any one event. We can do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak. A fighter on a three fight win-streak contributes +3 to an event’s score. A fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. No Contests, Draws or bouts with other promotions reset your streak to 0. If you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card (only counting UFC fights) you get a total which gives you an idea of the combined momentum of fighters heading into a specific event.

As you may imagine, pay-per-view events tend to have higher scores than Fight Nights, as fighters on longer winning streaks tend to be placed on bigger cards. For example, UFC Fight Night: Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos was a +4, whilst UFC 194: José Aldo vs. Conor McGregor was a +62.

So what does this tell us? It cannot definitively measure the quality or excitement of any one specific event, however, it does give a value for a card’s momentum that is immune to the business side of MMA promotion. Events pitting fighters at the top of their game against each other will score well, events that fast-track fighters into main card slots or push too many immediate rematches will not.

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Exclusive: Derek Brunson: “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up”



Derek Brunson fought Anderson Silva back in February of this year, at UFC 208. Brunson would go on to lose the fight by controversial unanimous decision. However, the controversies didn’t stop at the questionable decision, Brunson also claims Silva was greasing during the fight. The Wilmington, North Carolina native, posted about it on Twitter a few days ago:

Speaking with MMA Latest, Brunson explained why he believes Silva was greasing during the fight. “Anderson was definitely a little lubed up. Every time I grabbed him he was just slipping out of everything, and his takedown defense was really good that night. I was definitely curious to know why he was very slippery, which I definitely think he had some kind of substance on his body. He knows I’m a wrestler obviously, he’s an old, savvy veteran, so he was definitely trying to play all the rules and be very strategic, and make it harder for a wrestler to grab him.”

Brunson is set to face Lyoto Machida come October 28, when asked about whether he was worried about Machida greasing, considering Gegard Mousasi accused him of doing so in their fight, Brunson admitted he wasn’t too worried.

Well I’m not too worried, but like I said, I put it out there because I know they’re friends and I know, obviously, that’s kind of what the guys do when they know they’re fighting a wrestler. They want to lube their body up really good to make it hard to grab hold, Anderson did a great job defending my takedowns. It’s because he was all greased up so he was able to stop a lot of them. When I grab guys in the clinch, it’s very tough for them to get away and I’m pretty good with my Greco takedown. He was pretty much pulling through my clinch when I had a tight grip on him and if you have some kind of substance on your body it’s easy to pull them.”

Neither Silva nor his management have commented on the greasing allegations. Anderson Silva makes his return against Kelvin Gastelum later this year, in China. While Brunson makes his return to the Octagon on October 28th, in Brazil, where he looks to add Lyoto Machida’s name to his impressive list of victories.

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Ovince Saint Preux Steps in to Face Corey Anderson at UFC 217



UFC 217 just got even more interesting. Earlier this week, Patrick Cummins pulled out of his light heavyweight matchup with Corey Anderson due to a Staph infection. Corey “Overtime” Anderson was not happy with his opponents decision, even calling out his opponent on Instagram asking how Cummins could, “call it quits so far from fight night”.

The UFC left Anderson on the card, and he found an opponent through the magic of Twitter. Ovince Saint Preux tweeted out directly to Anderson stating:

It didn’t take long for Anderson to respond agreeing to the fight, tagging Mick Maynard and Dana White in his response.

Only a few short hours later, the fight announcement came from the official UFC twitter account.


This top 10 Light Heavyweight matchup should add to an already amazing card coming in November at Madison Square Garden. Saint Preux is coming off of back to back wins both due to the very rare von flue choke, he finds himself ranked #7th in the latest edition of the 205-pound rankings. Corey “Overtime” Anderson is 4-2 in his last 6 fights, but is coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Jimi Manuwa in March.

With such a exciting fight added to this card, what do you see happening November 4th?  Will Corey Anderson bounce back and look to jump into the top 5 of the rankings, or will Ovince Saint Preux go for a third straight von flue choke? Let us know.

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*Watch* Bellator 185 Weigh in: Live Stream, Results



Watch the live weigh-ins for Bellator 185 here.

Gegard Mousasi takes on Alexander Slemenko live this Friday night October 20th at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville CT. This is the first appearance for Mousasi in the Bellator cage as he looks to secure a title shot with a win over the very tough former Bellator champion Slemenko. Joining these men of the main card will be a pair of welterweights as Neiman Gracie from the famous Gracie BJJ family takes on Zak Bucia in the co-main event.

Full Weigh-in Results: (Updated in real time)

Main Card:

Gegard Mousasi (185) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (186)
Neiman Gracie (170.5) vs. Zak Bucia (170)
Heather Hardy (126) vs. Kristina Williams (126)
Ryan Quinn (155.5) vs. Marcus Surin (155)
Ana Julaton (125.5) vs. Lisa Blaine (122)

Preliminary Card:

Jordan Young (200) vs. Alec Hooben (194)
Costello van Steenis (185) vs. Steve Skrzat (186)
Vinicius de Jesus (170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (171)
John Beneduce (154.5) vs. Dean Hancock (155)
Timothy Wheeler (144) vs. Pete Rogers (144)
Don Shainis (150) vs. Matthew Denning (149)
Frank Sforza (149) vs. Vovka Clay (150)
Kevin Carrier (156) vs. Jose Antonio Perez (153)
John Lopez (126) vs. Billy Giovanella (125)

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