Rematches have been a hot topic as of late in the sport of Mixed Martial Arts, especially within the UFC. When is an immediate rematch warranted? How many fights does one have to win to get a 2nd shot at the same champion? Does a champion earn an immediate rematch when he loses his belt? What if the fight was a controversial decision? These are all questions that seem to float around every time that a rematch, especially an immediate one, is announced.
The UFC doesn’t seem to have set criteria for when rematches should occur, but whether or not the rematch can be marketed is the biggest hint that points towards the promotion scheduling it. For example, the UFC didn’t want to book former Featherweight champion Jose Aldo in an immediate rematch with Conor McGregor after losing his title to him in December despite having been undefeated for over 10 years prior to the loss, but instead he will fight Frankie Edgar for the interim belt while McGregor will seemingly fight Nate Diaz again in a matchup that only makes sense financially.
While our opinions on whether or not rematches should happen are purely subjective, we can look at rematches from a statistical standpoint to determine the odds for the results mirroring the first match. To come up with these numbers, we looked at all rematches (and trilogies) on the record of every single fighter ranked in the top 15 of their respective weight classes according to the UFC’s ranking system. To create an even larger and more even sample number, we also chose 50 fighters at random that aren’t signed to the UFC to draw rematch statistics from their records as well. This is what we found:
Some interesting things to note from these statistics:
-Fighters who won the first fight have a 61% success rate in the rematch. While this number turned out lower than what I had estimated previous to gathering the data, it still shows a significant statistical advantage for the fighter who won the first matchup. This is likely not only due to skill level/stylistic differences, but also to psychological/confidence levels heading into the fight.
-If a fighter has a rubber match fight scheduled, having won the 2nd fight of the trilogy is an indicator for the highest probability of winning the 3rd go around as those who lost the first fight but won the rematch have the best odds of winning in the trilogy showdown
-While the sample size is small due to the rare occurrence of a trilogy fight in MMA where one fighter has already won twice, the fighter who is 0-2 heading into the 3rd fight has a surprisingly higher success rate (22%) when compared to the fighter that is 2-0 (18.5%)
While we will never be able to get a firm grasp on whether or not a rematch should happen, we can look at the statistics and determine what the most likely result of it will be. In reality, we will never know if a rematch is worth the time until we look at it in hindsight. What we know for sure is that rematches aren’t going away anytime soon, and some of the best drama in the sport comes when two fighters get ready to go at it for a second or third time.
*WATCH* DaveNoseMMA – Aljamain Sterling Knockout Aftermath
Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou Official for UFC 220
UFC 220 in Boston, Massachusetts has its main event. Stipe Miocic (17-2) will put his belt on the line for the third time against rising heavyweight star, Francis Ngannou (11-1)
Rumors surrounded the match-up for UFC 220 after Ngannou’s first round knockout over Alistair Overeem, at UFC 218. The Cameroonian heavyweight called for the fight himself. In his octagon interview proceeding his most recent victory, Ngannou stated:
“I’m feeling good… I’m on my way to a title shot”.
— UFC (@ufc) December 10, 2017
The heavy handed Ngannou has finished all of his opponents in all of his six UFC bouts. A streak which includes a kimura submission over Anthony Hamilton and a TKO victory against former UFC heavyweight champion, Andrei Arlovski. Overall, he holds a ten fight win streak. His only defeat came by way of unanimous decision to Zoumana Cisse, in his second professional MMA fight.
If victorious, Ngannou would become the first African-born champion in UFC history.
Not to be diminished, Stipe Miocic rides his a streak of his own into the beantown match-up. Five consecutive wins, five knockouts and the past four of which, ended in the first round. A victory in Boston for the champ would make him the longest reigning heavyweight champion in UFC history. Currently, Miocic is one of three heavyweights, in the promotions entirety, whom has successfully defended the belt twice.
UFC 220 will be held at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on January 20th, 2018. The pay-per-view (PPV) card will also feature light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, as he faces challenger Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir.
Ladies Fight Night 7: “Double Trouble” Preview
Polish women’s federation Ladies Fight Night is going to celebrate their second birthday this year on the 15th to 17th of December. Two days, two events with a lot of great bouts.
LFN in Poland is being titled the new Invicta FC. The Polish owners created this federation to give European women a chance to fight on a big platform.
Hosting their first ever event in December 2015, LFN will hold two great cards next week, that will feature women who have fought under many prestigious promotions, such as the UFC, Invicta, Bellator, Glory, and Kunlun.
Two days of fantastic fights, intensified by a double dose of sports impressions. The name is not accidental, LFN 7 / LFN 8 combines two events, during which the best Polish fighters will be shown, as well as the best fighters from Europe (including France, Sweden, Italy, the Czech Republic and Romania)
The stakes are high, and we are electrified by the clashes between warriors such as Żaneta Cieśla vs Silvia La Notte and Patricia Axling vs. Cindy Silvestri. Mainly due to their vastness of their experience in the cage.
In the fight of the evening, the talented Romanian Cristina Stanciu will face Magdaléna Šormovádo. Stanciu fought twice in the UFC, but she was unfortunately cut from the promotion after suffering consecutive losses to Cortney Casey and Maryna Moroz.
Judyta Rymarzak vs Marta Waliczek is an amazing fight between two experienced kickboxers. Both making their pro MMA debuts on the night, we will witness a one-of-a-kind duel between two kickboxing perfectionists, as they look to transcend their skills into the MMA world.
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