Rogerio Nogueira (21-7)
- Height: 6’2″” Age: 39 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 75″
- Last Fight: Decision loss / Shogun Rua (8-1-15)
- Camp: Team Nogueira (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Boxing
- Risk Management: Good
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ BJJ World Champion
+ Pan American Boxing Medalist
+ 6 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 7 First round finishes
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate L. hand-R. hook
+ Hard knees to the body
+ Crafty submission setups
^ Excellent grip/hand fighting
+ Favors deep half guard
^ Creates sweeps & scrambles
– Struggles w/wrestling pressure
? Questionable physical state
Patrick Cummins (8-3)
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
- Last Fight: TKO loss / Glover Teixeira (11-7-15)
- Camp: Kings MMA (California)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
+ 2x All-American Wrestler
+ 2x US National Team Member
+ 2004 NCAA Runner-up
+ 4 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 4 First round finishes
+ Physically strong/stopping power
+ Excellent reactive shots
^ Well timed level changes
+ Powerful forward TD drive
^ Usually takes opposition to cage
+ Solid ground striker
+ Good scrambling ability
– Low hands & often leads w/head
^ Counter availabilities
Serving as the featured bout for UFC Fight Pass, Brazil’s own Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is set to do battle with the American, Patrick Cummins. A legend amongst hardcore fans and his countrymen, Rogerio will seek his first victory in Brazil under the UFC. With his last Brazilian victory coming over 7-years ago, Nogueira has since spent his time battling opposition & injuries in a tough .500-run thus far in the UFC. A frequent visitor to Brazil, Patrick Cummins will look to once again mix business with pleasure as he attempts to spoil the hero’s homecoming.
From Nogueira’s point of reference, he has seen this matchup many times before. In fact, the bulk of his UFC career(’10-’14) was spent facing the who’s who of wrestlers in the light-heavyweight division(Ryan Bader, Phil Davis, Tito Ortiz, and Rashad Evans). Despite showing improvements to his surrounding game and making for competitive affairs, Nogueira’s style ultimately scored poorly within the western scenes of MMA as the Brazilian spent most of his Octagon time defending shots & losing rounds.
Although he has not taken as much on-paper damage as his brother Rodrigo Nogueira, the list of layoffs & surgeries are just as long when looking back at “Little Nog’s” career. Despite coming back strong with signs of resurgence early on in the organization, Rogerio showed a huge change in trend upon his 2014 return when he faced Anthony Johnson. Even though the bout did not last long, the memory of it does due to the horrific brutality of the destruction.
After another year-long layoff, Nogueira would again return to face fellow countryman Shogun Rua in August of last year. In that fight, we saw Rogerio show his intentions of old as he threw his signature left hand and right hooks. However, we also saw the Brazilian legend execute his said game at a much slower & labored manner than before. Despite hurting Rua early in the fight, Nogueira struggled to close the show or continue a consistent pace to see it through. On the positive side, Rogerio looks in fantastic shape & spirits coming into this fight as he will need to be against Pat Cummins.
With his Olympic accoladed past and his freakish athleticism, Patrick Cummins burst onto the big scene in his last-minute match with Daniel Cormier. Six fights later, we have steadily seen what Cummins brings to the table. Although he has made gradual improvements to his footwork & head movement off strikes, Pat does not hide his intentions of setting you up to take you down. That said, Nogueira has picked up a few tricks in his experience with thwarting high-level wrestlers.
Like many southpaws, Nogueira has traditionally shown to defend standard shot entries easier with the given space differentials, whereas single-leg attempts can be harder to stop as the lead leg is forward & vulnerable. We saw Phil Davis discover this in his fight with Rogerio, as the Penn state alum was able to adjust & outwork Nogueira. Although Cummins shows competent single-legs within his takedown chains, I feel his power-double from hell will make the most impact. Demonstrating excellent timing on his level change, the looming threat of Pat’s power-double will likely check aggressive advances from Nogueira. Although reactive shots usually work better on Nogueira, I feel that Pat’s proactive takedowns will also have success in testing the Brazilian’s hips given the force of drive he applies.
No picnics will take place on the ground as Rogerio should still be competitive given the technical basis for his style. Utilizing superb grip fighting to stifle & set up opponents from guard, the Brazilian shows an arguably stronger plan B as he favors operating from the half-guard. Referred to as “Deep Half“, Nogueira will brilliantly dive a deep under-hook followed by his head underneath his opposition. Not only does this make Rogerio hard to hit, but it also obstructs his opponents base and opens up multiple avenues to sweep. Those will undoubtedly be Cummins biggest challenges on the mat, however, this won’t be his first high-level submission fighter he has faced. Before entering the UFC, Pat was renown as a guy who shut down and dismantled top talents on the mats, as we saw a glimpse of this in his fight with Antonio Carlos Junior.
Although Carlos Jr. has a different style than Nogueira, we still saw a world champion test Cummins with debasing attacks from a 50-50 & De La Riva Guard. If Pat was able to topple that level of talent two years ago, I suspect he will be able to stay safe positionally against Rogerio’s style. As a huge personal fan of Nogueira, I would love nothing more than to see him turn back the clock in his home country. However, even though a diminished Nogueira should still be able to out-box Cummins on the feet, his chances will be slim given that Pat may only be one level-change away from altering the terms of this fight.
Official Pick: Cummins – Decision
Preliminary Card Predictions
- Maia def. Brown
- Barberena def. Alves
- Santos def. Marquardt
- Font def. Lineker
- Cummins def. Nogueira
- Trinaldo def. Medeiros
- Moraes def. Chagas
- Tukhugov def. Carneiro
UFC on Fox: Emmett vs Stephens – Breakdown and Predictions
UFC returns to Fox with an exciting card full of up-and-coming talent, crafty veterans, and a main event featuring two of the featherweight division’s most powerful punchers. While the card seems to lack some star power, it holds some interesting and exciting match-ups. The co-main event features two of the best women’s 115ers in the world both vying for a shot at the title as Jéssica Andrade takes on Tecia Torres. In the main event, knock-out artist and division staple Jeremy Stephens takes on the young and hungry Team Alpha Male product Josh Emmett. A great main event to head off a solid Fox card, and now onto the breakdown.
Mike Perry vs Max Griffin
This fight should be fun for as long as it lasts, but don’t bet on it lasting too long. Mike Perry is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC’s welterweight division. Griffin can bang too, but Perry’s just a different animal in that department. The good news for Griffin is that there’s already a pretty decent blueprint on how to beat Perry; pick him apart from the outside and don’t brawl with the guy. The bad news is Griffin is a brawler at heart, which isn’t gonna do him any favors against a superior striker like Perry.
Mike Perry is one of the most marketable guys in the UFC’s crowded 170 pound division. Priority number 1 for the UFC is to get Perry back on the winning track. And Max Griffin is the perfect man for the job. Both men will come forward throwing heaters until someone goes down, and chances are that someone is gonna be Griffin. Perry is just too powerful, and unless Griffin can keep Perry on the outside early it’s gonna be a short night for ‘Pain’.
Prediction: Mike Perry by 1st Round KO
Ovince Saint Preux vs Ilir Latifi
Nobody has ever beaten Ovince Saint Preux. OSP beats himself. He’s sloppy, has terrible technique, and is almost always behind on the scorecards. Yet somehow he continues to score victories over the 205’s elite, most of the time in spectacular fashion. It is insane. Latifi is a more complete fighter, with solid boxing and a strong wrestling game to fall back on. Latifi tends to favor the stand-up, but against a big, powerful guy like OSP, that might not be the best idea.
The big question here is; how is Latifi going to approach this one? Striking with the big man is risky due to his monstrous power and 7 in. reach advantage. Wrestling is a safer option, however Ovince is not an easy man to hold down. Latifi’s best bet is to make it ugly. Grind Ovince up against the fence and dirty box the s**t out of him. Then once he’s good and tired, take him down to ice the round. Sure it’s not the most entertaining style, but if it works it works.
Prediction: Ilir Latifi by Decision
Jéssica Andrade vs Tecia Torres
After seeing her completely demolish two-time title challenger Cláudia Gadelha, I was confident picking Andrade over anyone in the division (not named Joanna of course). But after giving it some serious thought, I think Torres might just be the one to bring down the Brazilian brawler, think about it. Joanna was able to keep Andrade away with her jab for the better part of 25 minutes. And while Torres is no Joanna, she’s still an excellent striker with wins over some solid opposition.
Andrade has made vast improvements since her loss to then champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk. This was evident in the Gadelha fight. The same can be said for the ever-improving Torres, whose only loss in mma was to current champion Rose Namajunas (a woman she’s beaten in the past). This truly is one of the most high-level women’s match-ups in recent memory, but I believe the kickboxing of Torres will be enough to keep Andrade on the outside, securing Torres her fourth straight win and possibly a title shot.
Prediction: Tecia Torres by Decision
Josh Emmett vs Jeremy Stephens
Josh Emmett made waves last year, knocking out perennial contender Ricardo Lamas on short-notice in Winnipeg. While impressive, it’s worth noting that this was the first finish of Emmett’s UFC career and he missed weight for the bout (weighed in at 148.5). Stephens on the other hand just scored a vicious knock out over featherweight prospect Doo Ho Choi. This was Stephens’ first finish since July of 2015 when he flying knee KO’d Dennis Bermudez. On paper, this looks like it will be a barn-burner, on paper.
Stephens has struggled against good wrestlers in the past, most recently Frankie Edgar at UFC 205. And Frankie is small for the weight class, unlike Emmett who fought the majority of his career up at lightweight. I give Jeremy the edge in the striking department, but Emmett has some wicked power at 145. If it stays on the feet it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. But if Emmett does the smart thing and takes Jeremy down often, we just might have a new top contender in the UFC’s stacked featherweight division.
Prediction: Josh Emmett by Decision
GLORY: Redemption – Breakdown and Predictions
Glory returns to pay-per-view today with a stacked card, featuring some of their greatest fighters. Among them are reigning champions Rico Verhoeven and Alex Pereira, as well as the return of former title holder Nieky Holzken.
In the main event, Rico puts his heavyweight title on the line against the very dangerous Jamal Ben Saddik, who defeated him 6 years ago. Rico comes into the fight riding an impressive 14-fight Glory winning streak.
The co-main event features a rematch of the 2016 Fight of the Year between light heavyweight veterans Michael ‘The Dreamcrusher’ Duut and Danyo ‘Dibuba’ Ilunga. The card is a must-see for kickboxing fans, as well as those who just love a good scrap. And with that out of the way, here’s a breakdown of some of the more interesting fight’s on Saturday’s super-card. Enjoy.
Nieky Holzken vs Alim Nabiyev
Nabiyev came into Glory with a decent amount of steam behind him, but following his bout against short-notice opponent Jimmy Veinot, I honestly don’t see it. Nieky’s reign as champion was one of the best, and despite two close losses to the equally talented Cédric Doumbé, he’s still one of the best welterweights in the world today. With wins over Raymond Daniels, Joseph Valtellini, and current champion Murthel Groenhart, it’s hard to imagine Nieky having much of a problem with Nabiyev.
Expect plenty of pressure from Holzken early on. Coming off two straight losses Nieky will want to make a statement, and prove that he’s still the man to beat at 170. The liver shot will do it. Holzken will just be too much for Alim. Nabiyev has potential and could be a contender in the future, but right now Holzken is on a whole ‘nother level. Nieky is back, and he wants that title.
Prediction: Nieky Holzken by 1st Round TKO
Alex Pereira vs Yousri Belgaroui
Pereira’s win back at Glory 46 came as a shock to me. Simon Marcus has proven himself to be one of the best fighters in the division, and while Pereira is a solid kickboxer in his own right, I fully expected Marcus to win that one pretty easy. I was wrong. Pereira was the better man, and is now the Glory middleweight champion. But don’t expect it to last. Yousri completely shut Pereira down in there last meeting at Glory 40. And based on his last performance, a first round TKO over former champ Jason Wilnis, he’s only getting better.
Pereira’s path to victory is pretty simple, strike hard and strike early. The deep waters are not a place where Alex thrives. His cardio has been questionable in the past and his vaunted knockout power diminishes as the fight goes on. If Pereira can’t put Yousri on the back foot early it’s hard to see him taking this one.
The last fight was a fairly decisive win for Belgaroui. Alex was unable to score on Yousri and was picked apart after gassing out late into the fight. Pereira is a talented striker with some serious power, but Belgaroui’s well-rounded game and superior cardio should be enough to win him the championship.
Prediction: Yousri Belgaroui by Unanimous Decision
Michael Duut vs Danyo Ilunga
Last year these two stole the show, putting on one of the greatest fights of the year, maybe of all-time. But can they do it again? It’s hard to say. Consistency is not a strong suit for either of these men. Following his thriller with Ilunga, Duut went on to lose his next Glory contest by disqualification due to excessive clinching, then later won a contender tournament in less than a minute (48 seconds to be exact).
Duut’s incredible power and brawler style make him a dangerous fight for just about anyone in the light heavyweight division, but his lack of defence make him an easy target. Unfortunately, Ilunga hasn’t hit a bullsye in quite some time.
Danyo comes into this fight on a whopping 7 fight losing streak, and hasn’t won a fight in Glory since 2014. On the bright side, all 7 losses have come by decision so his chin has held up. Plus Duut isn’t the most durable guy in the world, so it’s possible that Ilunga could knock him out. But I don’t see that happening. Duut is just too powerful and Ilunga isn’t the same fighter he used to be. Hopefully the fight is as great as the last one was, but don’t expect it to go to a 4th round this time. Ilunga’s on a slippery slope, and Duut’s about to cause an avalanche.
Prediciton: Michael Duut by 3rd Round KO
Rico Verhoeven vs Jamal Ben Saddik
Despite being the main event this was one of the easier fights to pick. Rico has looked unstoppable lately, and as much as people hate to give him credit for anything, he really is the best heavyweight in the world right now. That doesn’t mean a whole lot considering how weak the division is at the moment, but Rico is champion for a reason.
The rest of the heavyweights just aren’t on his level. ‘Big Ben’ included. Jamal’s last fight against Guto Inocente was a total snoozefest, and if not for his rivalry with Rico he probably wouldn’t even be in the title picture. Badr Hari better get his act together cause Rico’s running out of opponents.
The only advantage I see Jamal having is his power. Rico is faster, more precise, and his striking is more diverse. Again, this is a heavyweight contest so anything can happen, but Jamal hasn’t KO’d a world-class opponent since he fought ‘Braddock’ 2 years ago. Since then, Rico has knocked-out Benjamin Adegbuyi, ‘Braddock’, Bigfoot Silva, and broke Badr’s arm earning him a TKO victory. Rico’s the better fighter, simple as that. And no amount of chest hair is going to change that.
Prediction: Rico Verhoeven by 5th Round KO
All images used in this article are accredited to GLORY Kickboxing
UFC 218: Holloway vs Aldo 2 Main Card Predictions and Analysis
The passing of the torch. A usual occurrence in combat sports. There comes a time when the old guard has to step down and let the new generation take its place. UFC 218 is all about the passing of the torch. Holloway-Aldo 2, Overeem-Ngannou, Alvarez-Gaethje, the card is chock full of young hungry fighters looking to make a statement against their aging counterparts. But don’t expect the old lions to give up without a fight. Aldo is still a world-class striker and Eddie’s still got some tread on the tires. And at the age of 37, Overeem is still one of the most dangerous heavyweights in the world today.
Max Holloway is a perfect representative of the new generation. He’s scrappy, well-rounded, and will fight whoever you put in front of him. He’s got the fire. So do Ngannou, Gaethje, and the rest of the young guys. Aldo hasn’t had that fire in a long time. Sure he’s still a great fighter, but in his last few fights, he’s lacked that burning passion he used to have. Aldo has all the tools to beat Holloway, but does he have the drive? Does the fire still burn, or was it put out long ago? That’s what we’re going to find out come Saturday.
Tecia Torres vs Michelle Waterson
This is such a weird fight. Torres’ climb to the top has been impressively mediocre. She has wins over quality opponents like Angela Hill, Felice Herrig, and Paige VanZant. However, with just a single finish to her credit, Tecia hasn’t given the fans a reason to pay attention to her. Waterson is the complete opposite. She has only gone to decision twice and is one of the more popular fighters in the division. However, injuries and losses have prevented Waterson from gaining any real momentum.
As far as the fight goes I really don’t know what to expect. Waterson is fairly inconsistent and Torres is so consistent it hurts. My assumption would be that Waterson has the better ground game, so if anyone’s going to take it to the mat it will be her. Torres has the better overall stand-up game but doesn’t possess the same finishing ability of the Karate Hottie. My guess is that this one stays on the feet with Torres pushing the pace early, then getting caught by a powerful strike from Waterson that puts her down for good.
Prediction: Michelle Waterson by 2nd Round TKO
Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje
How the hell did Cejudo-Pettis get billed higher than this? Alvarez vs Gaethje has the potential to be the Forrest-Bonnar of the modern era. Both men are aggressive brawlers on the feet and strong wrestlers on the mat. I’d give the submission edge to Eddie, but that’s about it. Gaethje’s striking game is more diverse than Eddie’s is, and his youth is definitely something to consider. With 34 fights to his credit, Alvarez is certainly no spring chicken. He’s not nearly as durable as he used to be, and against a dangerous scrapper like Gaethje, that’s not a great quality.
I really wanted to go with Alvarez on this one, but facts are facts. Gaethje is younger, tougher, and most importantly, better for business. Eddie already lost to the biggest draw in the game. Money-wise he doesn’t have much to offer. Gaethje, however, is a promoters wet dream. He’s durable, dangerous, and damn fun to watch. Basically, everything Eddie used to be. Why does any of this matter? Because the judges work for the UFC. If the UFC brass wants Gaethje to win, then he will. Simple as that. Is it right? No, but business is business. And Justin Gaethje is good for business.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje by Split Decision
Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis
This feels like too big a step up for Sergio, which is weird considering he’s ranked #4 and Cejudo is ranked #2. After Cejudo’s fight with Mighty Mouse, I wrote him off as nothing more than a sacrifice to the flyweight king. But his close fight with perennial #1 contender Joseph Benavidez and his vicious knockout over veteran submission artist Wilson Reis have shown me that Cejudo is more than just a big-headed wrestler. Henry is one of the best. If anyone in the division is taking the belt off Mighty Mouse it’s him.
Sergio is a talented kid, no doubt. Give him a few more years to develop and he could be champion one day. Unfortunately for him, the UFC doesn’t have time for that. They need flyweight contenders. If that means a few prospects have to bite the dust then so be it. I just hope Sergio doesn’t get completely outclassed and is able to make a good showing, but against a guy like Cejudo, I’m not holding my breath.
Prediction: Henry Cejudo by Unanimous Decision
Alistair Overeem vs Francis Ngannou
Call me crazy, but I’m still not completely sold on Cheick Kongo with dreadlocks. His only quality win is a knockout over what’s left of Andrei Arlovski. Overeem, on the other hand, has fought nothing but quality contenders in his climb back to the top, with his only loss coming against reigning champion Stipe Miocic (although some would argue they saw the tap). On paper, this is Overeem’s fight to win. Unfortunately, paper is what Overeem’s chin is made of.
Ngannou may not be as technically sound as Overeem is, but he hits just as hard, maybe harder. One good shot from the Predator and Overeem could drop like a sack of horse meat. Combine that with Overeem’s uber-cockiness and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Picking Overeem is always a gamble, but I’m willing to roll the dice on this one. It’s not gonna be pretty but Overeem’s in-and-out kickboxing and “run like hell” defensive style should be just enough to win this.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem by Unanimous Decision
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo 2
Holloway TKO’d Aldo about 6 months ago. Max is in the best form of his career. Aldo is taking the fight on short notice. I really can’t think of a good reason to pick Aldo on this one. Sure his striking is still some of the best in the division, but at this point, he’s writing checks his body can’t cash anymore. His chin has degraded significantly and his patented leg kicks are nowhere to be found. It pains me to say this because Aldo is an incredible fighter, but it’s starting to feel as though the sport is passing him by. Aldo is the past, Max is the future.
Despite just winning the title this summer, Holloway has effectively cleaned out the division. Swanson, Lamas, Stephens, Pettis, all fell to the young Hawaiian. Hell, since his loss to McGregor nobody’s even come close to beating Holloway. This doesn’t mean Max is invincible though. Frankie is still a huge threat to Max’s title, and those who sleep on Aldo are often put to sleep themselves. The road ahead of him is not an easy one, but something tells me Max is going to do just fine. It is what it is.
Prediction: Max Holloway by 2nd Round TKO
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