Dustin Poirier (18-4)
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: TKO win / Yancy Medeiros (6-6-15)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 9 KO/TKO’s 6 Submissions
+ 11 first round finishes
+ Good shot selection
+ Solid cage pressure
^ Looks to overwhelm w/volume
+ Counters underhooks w/D’Arce’s
+ Good distancing & cage cutting
– Hurt/dropped in 6 of last 10 fights
+ Improved variety & durability at LW
+ Excellent right hook
– Will leave kicks hanging out
+/-Often reverts to shell defense
^ Leaves open body shots & uppercuts
+ Accurate straight/counter left hand
– Right shoulder/guard lowers on entries
+ Strong left body kick
– Shows susceptibility to Triangles
Joseph Duffy (14-1)
- Height: 5’10” Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Ivan Jorge (7-18-15)
- Camp: Tristar Gym (Ireland/Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
- Risk Management: Good
+ Jiu Jitsu & TKD Black Belt
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 12 first round finishes
+ 7-0 as a Pro Boxer
+ Excellent head movement & feints
^ Good economy of strikes off movement
+ Adapts/sets footwork to opponent
+ Hunts submissions in transition
+ Very experienced against Southpaws
+ 9 submissions & 4 KO/TKO victories
– Keeps left hand/guard low
– Shows leg kick susceptibility
+ Deceptive striking speed changes
+ Excellent counter striking
^ Heavily reliant on timing & movement
+ Accurate & intercepting left hook
+ Favors left lead strikes offensively
^ Fast switch kicks & shuffle knees
Originally destined for Dublin and inserted into the Fight Pass fold, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier will finally meet “Irish” Joe Duffy. On an initial view of Joseph Duffy’s skill-set, his slightly low standing guard doesn’t necessarily suggest a “Good” risk management rating. However, as you watch film on Duffy, you’ll begin to see his “robot-like” systematic & technical approach. Though Joe’s excellent timing ties in his counters off head movement, it’s his footing that actually supports and dictates his game. Footwork & timing will be crucial against a Southpaw like Dustin, but luckily for Joe, he’s faced many Southpaws in his career. In watching said film, Duffy’s footwork is like literal clockwork. He consistently looks to set attack angles or achieve “the outside foot position” that Orthodox/Southpaw fighters battle for. From here, Joseph will prod and feint his way in drawing out counters or defensive openings.
Both Joe & Dustin’s footwork takes place in what I refer to as an “engaged range“(not hanging back to counter nor consistently blitzing forward). When fighting in this range a technical skill set is a must, however, it’s often the faster/more aggressive man who dictates. Both men show to be technical & athletic, but I give the speed advantage to Duffy(especially in the striking department). That said, Poirier has shown more fight to fight improvements in every area since moving back up to Lightweight. At featherweight, it was clear he was diminished by weight cutting, as we saw a talented & aggressive fighter struggling with what his body could output/absorb. Despite being hurt and or dropped in 6 of his last 10 fights, Dustin’s showed to take shots much better since his return to this Division.
I expect a physically prepared & technically improved Poirier, and with that in mind, I chose to focus on his core tendencies for my analysis. Defensively, Dustin will often revert to a “shell defense” which will traditionally open up body shots & uppercuts. Though Duffy utilized uppercuts more in his Boxing career, he has shown a proven MMA arsenal of body attacks. For me however, Dustin’s biggest defensive liability in this fight is his tendency to drop his right hand on entries/pocket exchanges. This in particular opens him up to a left hook, which just so happens to be Joe’s most accurate & well-timed punch. Duffy consistently through contests will look to time opponents on their way in, or make them pay on his/their way out of the exchanges. That all being noted, a similar truth can be told from the other side.
Though Duffy possesses good head movement & rolls well with punches, he will also keep a low-lead hand/guard. Despite keeping his chin tucked to his shoulders, Duffy is still open for right hooks. As fate would have it, Dustin carries an aggressive & accurate right hook. When feeling in stride, Poirier will also tac on a nice straight left as shown in his recent fights. This all being said, I feel Dustin’s best chances striking will be through kicks. Duffy has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks given his stance, and Dustin can exploit this/create openings should he choose. Poirier’s best kick is his left body kick, and could be doubly effective if he mixes in the left high kick. Though Duffy has shown to be defensively sound, he leans heavily to the right side of his guard. You can effectively block kicks from this style, but we’ve also seen guys lean low to block a body kick and instead receive a headshot(Nogueira vs Herring 3).
If Dustin can’t shift the momentum standing, I suspect he’ll follow his natural suit of forward cage attack pressure. From here, expect Dustin to mix dirty boxing with TD attempts in an effort to test Duffy’s ground game or neutralize him standing at the very least. Duffy however, is used to this approach from his past fights and has shown good cage & TD defense. Given the styles & mat times in both men’s career, I don’t expect long grappling stalemates. On the ground, both men are multi-talented submission artists, but I feel the key difference on the floor will be their scrambling ability. Dustin primarily looks to sweep or transition technically, whereas Joe creates & capitalizes on scrambles(where he’s shown to sharp shoot subs in transition). Poirier has shown to give his back in scrambles & has even lost rounds to it in the past.
Dustin has also shown susceptible in past fights to Triangle Chokes(though never officially caught). This is due to his general posture & hand fighting(or lack of) when on top. This could be something to look for given it’s Duffy’s favorite submission(6 finishes in Pro & Am career). This fight is so fun on paper that it felt like a crime to try and break it down. But after doing so, I predict Joseph Duffy’s technical consistency will find a finish before the final horn.
Official Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance
Preliminary Card Predictions
- McDonald def. Kanehara
- Noke def. Morono
- Kish def. Ansaroff
- Holtzman def. Dober
- Duffy def. Poirier
- Soto def. Tanaka
- Westcott def. Garcia
Fantasy MMA Picks
High Tier Picks:
Low Tier Picks:
Pieces for your parlay:
Props worth looking at:
-Albert Tumenov – by KO/TKO
-Scott Holtzman – by Submission
-Brian Ortega – inside the distance
Fights to avoid:
-Stipe Miocic vs Andrei Arlovski
-Michael McDonald vs Masanori Kanehara
-Kyle Noke vs Alex Morono
UFC 216 Breakdown: Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee
As a fight fan, you can’t ask for a much better match up than Tony Ferguson vs Kevin Lee.
This match up is easily one of the most fascinating ones of the year, and with the interim lightweight title on the line, the stake doesn’t get much higher. But the bigger meaning of the fight lies in that fact that a clear number one contender will be determined to virtually guarantee a future opportunity at the current champion, Conor McGregor.
The talks of McGregor next facing rival Nate Diaz next have been circulating for the past few weeks, but once this fight between Ferguson and Lee concludes, and someone walks out of the arena on Saturday with that interim championship around their waist, they will be very hard to deny for McGregor.
Although this fight is a very exciting match up, on paper, it may deceive some people as a mismatch, since Lee’s resume of wins doesn’t include too many top contenders. His biggest win was against Michael Chiesa in June of this year, Chiesa was ranked 6th at the time. But let’s look deeper into it and see what makes this one a must-see fight.
Where Ferguson Flourishes
Ferguson and Lee may be stylistically two completely different fighters, but their ground games and grappling are both extremely high level, possibly the top 3 in the division, a list that can’t leave out Khabib Nurmagomedov. In the grappling department, it is hard to decide a winner here.
Even about five months ago, I would have leaned towards Ferguson, but watching Lee take control against a high level grappler like Chiesa the way he did was beyond belief to be honest. Ferguson will have his hands full if the fight hits the canvas, and likewise for Lee. However, if there is one thing that Lee needs to watch out against Ferguson, it is the unorthodox style he brings, even in the grappling.
“El Cucuy” is a bizarre fighter, but in a good way. Watch him fight against Edson Barboza and do a couple of imanari rolls. Watch him roll while on the bottom against dos Anjos. It is mind-blowing how good he is with such peculiarity and Lee can’t overlook that.
With that being said, advantages for ‘El Cucuy’ are quite clear: Stand-up, cardio and experience. Ferguson showed time and time again what a well-rounded fighter he is, and his record shows it too. Out of 17 finishes on his win column, 9 of them are by knockout and 8 are by submission. He really is a fighter who can do it all.
We also know that his cardio is exceptional, this was displayed in his fight against Rafael dos Anjos, where he went five hard rounds with the former champion in Mexico City, at an altitude of 7,382 feet. Just to give an idea of how high that is, Colorado’s altitude is 6,035 feet.
Ferguson knows what it is like to be in the deep waters. But when a fairly young fighter such as Lee reaches the later rounds, nobody knows how he will respond to the situation, so Ferguson has his advantages in the experience department laid out clearly.
Don’t Count Out Kevin Lee
‘The Motown Phenom’, on the other hand, is a completely different fighter with different strengths. He possesses advantages in the physical department, career mileage, and in the fact that he has less pressure going into the fight. The physical advantage is the most obvious one for Lee. He has spoken before on the fact that he cuts from about 180-pounds, where Ferguson has talked about him being capable of making 145-pounds.
Ferguson may be taller, but it is not difficult to see that Lee is bigger when they stand next to each other. Lee’s second advantage comes from the fact that he is not as battle-tested. In a way, it could be a disadvantage, but he has taken considerably less amount of damage throughout his career compared to Ferguson. The last advantage for Lee listed was explained more specifically on my article ‘Tony Ferguson can’t afford to lose at UFC 216’. Feel free to go and check it out.
Now that both guys’ assets are laid out for this fight, it’s time to make a prediction.
Time and time again leading up to this fight, I’ve heard people say that this fight is going to end in a submission, and most say it’s going to come from Ferguson. I would agree with that but here’s one thing. As previously mentioned, Lee’s grappling is top-notch and he is brilliant defensively. This was evidenced when he was on the bottom against Michael Chiesa, a position in which he was easily able to escape.
I don’t believe Lee is a fighter that can be easily submitted. But here’s what I agree with most on: I also see Ferguson winning, because of his experience, cardio, and definitely unpredictability. Kevin Lee, while he is a very talented fighter, I believe it is just a tad bit too early for him at this moment.
Prediction: Tony Ferguson def. Kevin Lee via TKO (punches) in the 5th round.
UFC 216 Breakdown: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg
If Demetrious Johnson is able to defend his flyweight title this Saturday at UFC 216, it will be an attempt to break a major record, as he will then have defended his belt for the 11th consecutive time.
It is a remarkable record that he attempts to break, which is currently being held by Johnson and the former middleweight champion Anderson Silva, at 10.
When this fight was first announced for UFC 215, the reactions from the fans were not exactly what the UFC hoped it would be. There were two possible reasons for this, and maybe even both:
1) The talks of Johnson defending his title against T.J. Dillashaw was roaming around at the time, which got fans excited, only to disappoint them in the end when it wasn’t finalized.
2) Ray Borg is not necessarily a fighter that fans are dying to see yet, mainly because he is not the most marketable fighter and he is very young, which made us ask, “Is he ready for this opportunity?”
However, there is one thing we must keep in mind when looking at a fight between a dominant champion and a young rising contender: Expect the unexpected. We saw it last December when Dominick Cruz fought Cody Garbrandt at UFC 207. Who would have ever thought that Garbrandt would be able to outclass Cruz the way he did?
But don’t get it mistaken. ‘Can’ doesn’t mean ‘will’. And although Borg could shock the world in this fight, it is way more reasonable to lean towards Johnson. After all, if we are being honest, ‘Mighty Mouse’ is the closest thing to a perfect fighter. The only times he lost was to Brad Pickett, which was seven years ago, and to Dominick Cruz, who unlike ‘DJ’ is a natural bantamweight.
This is a tough fight for Borg. The only way for him to win is either catch Johnson with a big shot and finish him or keep up a ridiculous pace for 5 rounds straight and outmatch the champion with skills.
Borg is at a couple of disadvantages here, one being his cardio. “The Tazmexican Devil” has previously shown that he often has a tough time making the 125-pound weight limit, and if you add that to the fact that he never fought past three rounds, his cardio is in question. Whether he will be able to keep up with Johnson, who can put on a ridiculous pace for 25-minutes straight, remains to be seen.
Also, we never know what is going through a fighter’s head, so it will be interesting to see how Borg performs under pressure. He’s never had a title shot, and Johnson has been in the same spot 12-times in his career, so experience also goes to Johnson.
Ultimately, I’m leaning towards the champion in this fight. I do like Borg and what he brings to the table, however, too many questions are unanswered about Borg at this point to pick him over Demetrious Johnson.
Prediction: Demetrious Johnson def. Ray Borg via Unanimous Decision.
UFC 215 Main Card Breakdown
The UFC makes its return to Canada as current flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson looks to break the record for most successful, consecutive, title defenses, against Ray Borg. Also on the card is a women’s bantamweight title fight between champion Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko, Gilbert Melendez makes his featherweight debut against power puncher Jeremy Stephens, Ilir Latifi looks to bounce back against Tyson Pedro, and Rafael dos Anjos looks to continue his welterweight journey against Neil Magny. Let’s take a look and see how it each fight plays out.
Jeremy Stephens vs Gilbert Melendez
Gilbert Melendez is a fighter who has built his career on being a talented boxer and being incredibly strong both in the clinch and the ground. For years he has been a monster for most lightweights to deal with. However, since having joined the UFC from Strikeforce he has gone just 1-4. In his last couple of fights, he has found himself slowed down due to unchecked leg kicks and opponents who are quicker than him. In an attempt to resurrect his career ‘El Nino’ has dropped down to featherweight and will meet former lightweight, himself, Jeremy Stephens. Stephens has made a career out of hitting hard, knocking opponents out with either hands, legs, or even his knees. Stephens is a fighter who excels in the pocket and has the durability to stand toe to toe with almost any opponent. In his last five fights, he has gone 2-3 due to his opponents being quicker than him and keeping him on the end of their punches.
How the fight will go
Gilbert will come into the fight as the stronger fighter with the better grappling game and better control of the Octagon. His excellent boxing will match-up well with Stephens. However, Stephens will come in as the faster fighter, harder puncher, and will already be used to cutting down to 145. Melendez will need to gain control of the Octagon early and keep Stephens against the cage both in the clinch and on the ground, in order to tire out “Lil Heathen”. If he can use his boxing to keep Stephens at the end of his punches, control the Octogan, and stay out of the pocket, it’s his fight to lose. Stephens does his best work in the pocket and although he’s slow for a featherweight he will have the advantage speed wise in this match-up. If he can keep his back off of the cage, gain control of the Octagon, land his powerful leg kicks, and mix up his powerful strikes, then he will have a dog in this fight and can very well pull off the upset.
Gilbert Melendez fights very similarly to the way he fought in the Pettis fight. He keeps Stephens’ back against the cage and forces him to the ground every chance he gets in order to tire him out. Stephens occasionally finds success using his speed and power in the pocket but eventually finds himself too tired to stop the stronger Melendez from imposing his game plan. Assuming Gilbert’s first cut 145 goes well, he beats Stephen’s via a close but clear decision to put his career back on track and start his journey at featherweight on the right foot.
Ilir Latifi vs Tyson Pedro
Ilir Latifi is coming off of one of the most brutal knockout losses of 2016. He ate a huge knee from Ryan Bader in the second round of their fight and has not returned to the Octogan since. The Swedish ball of muscle looks to bounce back against the undefeated Australian Tyson Pedro. Tyson Pedro is a fighter who has never experienced anything beyond a first round stoppage win, his fight against Latifi represents his biggest test yet. Latifi is a fighter with a game centered around his incredible strength and power. He is a fighter who brings a calm energy in the cage and an interesting physique. He is only 5’10, the same height as former featherweight Anthony Pettis, what he lacks in height he makes up for with muscle. His muscle alone makes him one of the strongest and most powerful fighters in the UFC. Pedro is one of the tallest fighters in his division, coming in at 6’3 he’s used to being the stronger, taller fighter and likes to smother his opponents both on the ground and in the clinch.
How the fight will go
A lot of Pedro’s advantages come from being the taller, stronger fighter. He likes to keep his opponents at range, eat them up with oblique kicks, clinch up, take them down and find the stoppage. Latifi’s strength means clinching and takedowns won’t be easy. He can over power most opponents and avoid trouble in those areas. Latifi does have a tendency to get stuck on the outside and eat leg kicks, his tendency to rush in can lead to counters, like in the Bader fight. Latifi is an excellent wrestler but has trouble taking his opponents down, often expanding a lot of energy in the process. Pedro has been hurt before by his lack of head movement and that can lead to him taking big shots, Latifi can always find a big shot early on and take the Australian out.
This fight will all depend on how the first round goes. If Latifi can find his range early on he can land the knockout shot and finish the Australian. If he can’t, he will find himself on the outside where Pedro will pick him apart with body kicks and oblique kicks and hold him against the fence where the Swede will tire himself out. If Pedro stays patient he can tire out Latifi and score the finish. Pedro scores the upset and finishes an exhausted Latifi in the third round by TKO.
Neil Magny vs Rafael dos Anjos
Rafael dos Anjos looks to win his second fight at welterweight as he faces long time contender Neil Magny. Dos Anjos is coming off of a well-fought decision win against Tarec Saffiedine in a fight that helped him discover how he stacked up against a real welterweight and how his body would hold up. He brings into this fight excellent body and leg kicks that he uses to break down his opponents and slow down their movement. He has a game that is perfectly suited for his height as he uses a lot of pressure and forward movement to make sure he stays on the inside. His excellent ground game has carried over to 170 as he uses his top pressure to smother his opponents. Neil Magny last fought against Johny Hendricks in a fight where he used his long range better and showed a new technique with his kicks to create range. Magny’s game uses excellent cardio, as well as good footwork and movement. He’s starting to better understand how to use his long and tall body. He also uses his long legs to create triangle attempts from the bottom.
How the fight plays out
If Magny can use his height and reach correctly he can leave Dos Anjos stuck on the outside, as well as using his footwork to ensure he doesn’t take too many shots. His cardio will keep him fresh throughout the three rounds and he can use that to his advantage if dos Anjos tires out. Dos Anjos will look to use his leg kicks to stop Magny’s footwork as well as use his powerful body kicks to sap his cardio. Dos Anjos’ pressure based game could very well negate Magny’s reach advantage and his smothering top game would keep Magny from using his reach.
Although Magny has the tools to beat dos Anjos, the Brazilian remains an elite fighter even at welterweight. Dos Anjos uses his leg and body kicks to slow down Magny as well as using his wrestling to tire the American out. Dos Anjos has fought tall opponents in the past and knows how to use his forward pressure to remove the reach advantage, as he did against Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz. The former lightweight champion takes a decision win and moves to 2-0 at welterweight.
Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko
Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko meet for the second time after fighting each other at UFC 196. The first fight ended in a close 29-28 decision win for the now champion Nunes. Nunes is a long and rangy kickboxer who likes to fight at range, where she uses her jab and cross keep her opponents back. She has been known to finish most of her fights early on, however, if she fails to do so she has a tendency to get tired, gas out, and get finished herself. Shevchenko, although undersized at 5’5, has been beating her opponents using her ever evolving ground game and her excellent Muay-Thai. Her patience and forcing her opponents to lead has brought her victories over top contenders like Holly Holm and Julianna Pena.
How the fight plays out
Amanda Nunes used her strength on the ground to beat Shevchenko in the first two rounds the last time they fought. Nunes didn’t have a whole lot of success on the feet as she was overpowered in the clinch and found herself having trouble with Shevchenko’s patience and lack of counter opportunities. Nunes’ ground game, while she was still fresh, was very dangerous last time out, nasty ground and pound as well as multiple submission attempts. However in the third round of their fight Nunes gassed and found herself too exhausted to overpower her opponent like she had done in the first rounds and found herself eating a lot of shots on the ground and in the clinch. If early on she can force Shevchenko to the ground and use her strength, she can find a submission or a ground and pound TKO. However, if she can’t, she’ll find herself getting tired in the later rounds and seeing her window for victory closing. This fight, being five rounds, heavily favors Shevchenko and her ever evolving game.
Much like in their first fight Shevchenko will stay patient and lose the early rounds. Her lack of activity hurt her last time out as well as Nunes’ aggressive ground game. If Nunes can use her strength early on, she can take Shevchenko down and have her way with her as she looks for the early finish. If Shevchenko can weather the early storm, she can take advantage of her tired opponent and finish her late. Shevchenko will force Nunes to lead and although she’ll have to weather the early storm, her patience will eventually pay off as her opponent tires herself out. Valentina Shevchenko finishes an exhausted Amanda Nunes in the fourth round by TKO to become the new women’s bantamweight champion.
Demetrious Johnson vs Ray Borg
Current flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson takes on Ray Borg in an attempt to break the record for most successful consecutive title defenses. His 11th title defense comes against skilled wrestler Ray Borg and his ever evolving striking. Johnson brings to the Octagon one of the most well-rounded games in all of MMA. His excellent stand up paired with his world class grappling has not failed him at 125. His excellent footwork has always troubled his opponents and his lack of clear weaknesses means it’s difficult to exploit problems in his game. Ray Borg started his career as a world class grappler who would immediately take his opponents down and smother them until the fight was over or he was able to find a submission. His striking used to be a big weakness in his game until he started training with Brandon Gibson.
How the fight plays out
Ray Borg used to start his fights by immediately taking his opponents down and smothering them. Now that his striking improved he’s content with staying on the feet and striking with his opponents. This is where he will have problems against Johnson, Johnson is the much quicker fighter out of the two and will keep Borg on the outside. Borg’s incredibly short reach of 63” means he will need to cover a lot of distance, something he struggles with. Borg is not the quickest of flyweights and is a lot slower than Johnson. While Johnson has the bigger advantage on the feet, the wrestling is where it gets tricky. Borg’s ability to find the takedown and stay on his opponent is something he will need to use to tire out Johnson and force him to make a mistake. Johnson’s patience on the ground means he won’t panic if he goes down with Borg and has shown in the past he can easily get back up or even grapple with the best of them. Borg’s gas tank will be a problem in this fight, as Johnson never seems to tire out and is used to going five rounds. If Borg tires, Johnson will completely take over the fight.
Borg starts the first round on the feet and ends up getting frustrated as he finds Johnson too quick and gets stuck on the outside. He eventually finds the takedown and forces Johnson to go through some scary moments. Johnson survives the early storm on the ground and starts to run away with the fight in the third round as Borg starts to tire. Although the fight will be close on the ground, it’s obvious Johnson has all the advantages in the standup. Demetrious Johnson beats Ray Borg by unanimous decision to break the record for most successful title defenses in a row.
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