Dustin Poirier (18-4)
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: TKO win / Yancy Medeiros (6-6-15)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 9 KO/TKO’s 6 Submissions
+ 11 first round finishes
+ Good shot selection
+ Solid cage pressure
^ Looks to overwhelm w/volume
+ Counters underhooks w/D’Arce’s
+ Good distancing & cage cutting
– Hurt/dropped in 6 of last 10 fights
+ Improved variety & durability at LW
+ Excellent right hook
– Will leave kicks hanging out
+/-Often reverts to shell defense
^ Leaves open body shots & uppercuts
+ Accurate straight/counter left hand
– Right shoulder/guard lowers on entries
+ Strong left body kick
– Shows susceptibility to Triangles
Joseph Duffy (14-1)
- Height: 5’10” Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 73″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Ivan Jorge (7-18-15)
- Camp: Tristar Gym (Ireland/Canada)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
- Risk Management: Good
+ Jiu Jitsu & TKD Black Belt
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 12 first round finishes
+ 7-0 as a Pro Boxer
+ Excellent head movement & feints
^ Good economy of strikes off movement
+ Adapts/sets footwork to opponent
+ Hunts submissions in transition
+ Very experienced against Southpaws
+ 9 submissions & 4 KO/TKO victories
– Keeps left hand/guard low
– Shows leg kick susceptibility
+ Deceptive striking speed changes
+ Excellent counter striking
^ Heavily reliant on timing & movement
+ Accurate & intercepting left hook
+ Favors left lead strikes offensively
^ Fast switch kicks & shuffle knees
Originally destined for Dublin and inserted into the Fight Pass fold, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier will finally meet “Irish” Joe Duffy. On an initial view of Joseph Duffy’s skill-set, his slightly low standing guard doesn’t necessarily suggest a “Good” risk management rating. However, as you watch film on Duffy, you’ll begin to see his “robot-like” systematic & technical approach. Though Joe’s excellent timing ties in his counters off head movement, it’s his footing that actually supports and dictates his game. Footwork & timing will be crucial against a Southpaw like Dustin, but luckily for Joe, he’s faced many Southpaws in his career. In watching said film, Duffy’s footwork is like literal clockwork. He consistently looks to set attack angles or achieve “the outside foot position” that Orthodox/Southpaw fighters battle for. From here, Joseph will prod and feint his way in drawing out counters or defensive openings.
Both Joe & Dustin’s footwork takes place in what I refer to as an “engaged range“(not hanging back to counter nor consistently blitzing forward). When fighting in this range a technical skill set is a must, however, it’s often the faster/more aggressive man who dictates. Both men show to be technical & athletic, but I give the speed advantage to Duffy(especially in the striking department). That said, Poirier has shown more fight to fight improvements in every area since moving back up to Lightweight. At featherweight, it was clear he was diminished by weight cutting, as we saw a talented & aggressive fighter struggling with what his body could output/absorb. Despite being hurt and or dropped in 6 of his last 10 fights, Dustin’s showed to take shots much better since his return to this Division.
I expect a physically prepared & technically improved Poirier, and with that in mind, I chose to focus on his core tendencies for my analysis. Defensively, Dustin will often revert to a “shell defense” which will traditionally open up body shots & uppercuts. Though Duffy utilized uppercuts more in his Boxing career, he has shown a proven MMA arsenal of body attacks. For me however, Dustin’s biggest defensive liability in this fight is his tendency to drop his right hand on entries/pocket exchanges. This in particular opens him up to a left hook, which just so happens to be Joe’s most accurate & well-timed punch. Duffy consistently through contests will look to time opponents on their way in, or make them pay on his/their way out of the exchanges. That all being noted, a similar truth can be told from the other side.
Though Duffy possesses good head movement & rolls well with punches, he will also keep a low-lead hand/guard. Despite keeping his chin tucked to his shoulders, Duffy is still open for right hooks. As fate would have it, Dustin carries an aggressive & accurate right hook. When feeling in stride, Poirier will also tac on a nice straight left as shown in his recent fights. This all being said, I feel Dustin’s best chances striking will be through kicks. Duffy has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks given his stance, and Dustin can exploit this/create openings should he choose. Poirier’s best kick is his left body kick, and could be doubly effective if he mixes in the left high kick. Though Duffy has shown to be defensively sound, he leans heavily to the right side of his guard. You can effectively block kicks from this style, but we’ve also seen guys lean low to block a body kick and instead receive a headshot(Nogueira vs Herring 3).
If Dustin can’t shift the momentum standing, I suspect he’ll follow his natural suit of forward cage attack pressure. From here, expect Dustin to mix dirty boxing with TD attempts in an effort to test Duffy’s ground game or neutralize him standing at the very least. Duffy however, is used to this approach from his past fights and has shown good cage & TD defense. Given the styles & mat times in both men’s career, I don’t expect long grappling stalemates. On the ground, both men are multi-talented submission artists, but I feel the key difference on the floor will be their scrambling ability. Dustin primarily looks to sweep or transition technically, whereas Joe creates & capitalizes on scrambles(where he’s shown to sharp shoot subs in transition). Poirier has shown to give his back in scrambles & has even lost rounds to it in the past.
Dustin has also shown susceptible in past fights to Triangle Chokes(though never officially caught). This is due to his general posture & hand fighting(or lack of) when on top. This could be something to look for given it’s Duffy’s favorite submission(6 finishes in Pro & Am career). This fight is so fun on paper that it felt like a crime to try and break it down. But after doing so, I predict Joseph Duffy’s technical consistency will find a finish before the final horn.
Official Pick: Duffy – Inside the distance
Preliminary Card Predictions
- McDonald def. Kanehara
- Noke def. Morono
- Kish def. Ansaroff
- Holtzman def. Dober
- Duffy def. Poirier
- Soto def. Tanaka
- Westcott def. Garcia
Fantasy MMA Picks
High Tier Picks:
Low Tier Picks:
Pieces for your parlay:
Props worth looking at:
-Albert Tumenov – by KO/TKO
-Scott Holtzman – by Submission
-Brian Ortega – inside the distance
Fights to avoid:
-Stipe Miocic vs Andrei Arlovski
-Michael McDonald vs Masanori Kanehara
-Kyle Noke vs Alex Morono
GLORY: Redemption – Breakdown and Predictions
Glory returns to pay-per-view today with a stacked card, featuring some of their greatest fighters. Among them are reigning champions Rico Verhoeven and Alex Pereira, as well as the return of former title holder Nieky Holzken.
In the main event, Rico puts his heavyweight title on the line against the very dangerous Jamal Ben Saddik, who defeated him 6 years ago. Rico comes into the fight riding an impressive 14-fight Glory winning streak.
The co-main event features a rematch of the 2016 Fight of the Year between light heavyweight veterans Michael ‘The Dreamcrusher’ Duut and Danyo ‘Dibuba’ Ilunga. The card is a must-see for kickboxing fans, as well as those who just love a good scrap. And with that out of the way, here’s a breakdown of some of the more interesting fight’s on Saturday’s super-card. Enjoy.
Nieky Holzken vs Alim Nabiyev
Nabiyev came into Glory with a decent amount of steam behind him, but following his bout against short-notice opponent Jimmy Veinot, I honestly don’t see it. Nieky’s reign as champion was one of the best, and despite two close losses to the equally talented Cédric Doumbé, he’s still one of the best welterweights in the world today. With wins over Raymond Daniels, Joseph Valtellini, and current champion Murthel Groenhart, it’s hard to imagine Nieky having much of a problem with Nabiyev.
Expect plenty of pressure from Holzken early on. Coming off two straight losses Nieky will want to make a statement, and prove that he’s still the man to beat at 170. The liver shot will do it. Holzken will just be too much for Alim. Nabiyev has potential and could be a contender in the future, but right now Holzken is on a whole ‘nother level. Nieky is back, and he wants that title.
Prediction: Nieky Holzken by 1st Round TKO
Alex Pereira vs Yousri Belgaroui
Pereira’s win back at Glory 46 came as a shock to me. Simon Marcus has proven himself to be one of the best fighters in the division, and while Pereira is a solid kickboxer in his own right, I fully expected Marcus to win that one pretty easy. I was wrong. Pereira was the better man, and is now the Glory middleweight champion. But don’t expect it to last. Yousri completely shut Pereira down in there last meeting at Glory 40. And based on his last performance, a first round TKO over former champ Jason Wilnis, he’s only getting better.
Pereira’s path to victory is pretty simple, strike hard and strike early. The deep waters are not a place where Alex thrives. His cardio has been questionable in the past and his vaunted knockout power diminishes as the fight goes on. If Pereira can’t put Yousri on the back foot early it’s hard to see him taking this one.
The last fight was a fairly decisive win for Belgaroui. Alex was unable to score on Yousri and was picked apart after gassing out late into the fight. Pereira is a talented striker with some serious power, but Belgaroui’s well-rounded game and superior cardio should be enough to win him the championship.
Prediction: Yousri Belgaroui by Unanimous Decision
Michael Duut vs Danyo Ilunga
Last year these two stole the show, putting on one of the greatest fights of the year, maybe of all-time. But can they do it again? It’s hard to say. Consistency is not a strong suit for either of these men. Following his thriller with Ilunga, Duut went on to lose his next Glory contest by disqualification due to excessive clinching, then later won a contender tournament in less than a minute (48 seconds to be exact).
Duut’s incredible power and brawler style make him a dangerous fight for just about anyone in the light heavyweight division, but his lack of defence make him an easy target. Unfortunately, Ilunga hasn’t hit a bullsye in quite some time.
Danyo comes into this fight on a whopping 7 fight losing streak, and hasn’t won a fight in Glory since 2014. On the bright side, all 7 losses have come by decision so his chin has held up. Plus Duut isn’t the most durable guy in the world, so it’s possible that Ilunga could knock him out. But I don’t see that happening. Duut is just too powerful and Ilunga isn’t the same fighter he used to be. Hopefully the fight is as great as the last one was, but don’t expect it to go to a 4th round this time. Ilunga’s on a slippery slope, and Duut’s about to cause an avalanche.
Prediciton: Michael Duut by 3rd Round KO
Rico Verhoeven vs Jamal Ben Saddik
Despite being the main event this was one of the easier fights to pick. Rico has looked unstoppable lately, and as much as people hate to give him credit for anything, he really is the best heavyweight in the world right now. That doesn’t mean a whole lot considering how weak the division is at the moment, but Rico is champion for a reason.
The rest of the heavyweights just aren’t on his level. ‘Big Ben’ included. Jamal’s last fight against Guto Inocente was a total snoozefest, and if not for his rivalry with Rico he probably wouldn’t even be in the title picture. Badr Hari better get his act together cause Rico’s running out of opponents.
The only advantage I see Jamal having is his power. Rico is faster, more precise, and his striking is more diverse. Again, this is a heavyweight contest so anything can happen, but Jamal hasn’t KO’d a world-class opponent since he fought ‘Braddock’ 2 years ago. Since then, Rico has knocked-out Benjamin Adegbuyi, ‘Braddock’, Bigfoot Silva, and broke Badr’s arm earning him a TKO victory. Rico’s the better fighter, simple as that. And no amount of chest hair is going to change that.
Prediction: Rico Verhoeven by 5th Round KO
All images used in this article are accredited to GLORY Kickboxing
UFC 218: Holloway vs Aldo 2 Main Card Predictions and Analysis
The passing of the torch. A usual occurrence in combat sports. There comes a time when the old guard has to step down and let the new generation take its place. UFC 218 is all about the passing of the torch. Holloway-Aldo 2, Overeem-Ngannou, Alvarez-Gaethje, the card is chock full of young hungry fighters looking to make a statement against their aging counterparts. But don’t expect the old lions to give up without a fight. Aldo is still a world-class striker and Eddie’s still got some tread on the tires. And at the age of 37, Overeem is still one of the most dangerous heavyweights in the world today.
Max Holloway is a perfect representative of the new generation. He’s scrappy, well-rounded, and will fight whoever you put in front of him. He’s got the fire. So do Ngannou, Gaethje, and the rest of the young guys. Aldo hasn’t had that fire in a long time. Sure he’s still a great fighter, but in his last few fights, he’s lacked that burning passion he used to have. Aldo has all the tools to beat Holloway, but does he have the drive? Does the fire still burn, or was it put out long ago? That’s what we’re going to find out come Saturday.
Tecia Torres vs Michelle Waterson
This is such a weird fight. Torres’ climb to the top has been impressively mediocre. She has wins over quality opponents like Angela Hill, Felice Herrig, and Paige VanZant. However, with just a single finish to her credit, Tecia hasn’t given the fans a reason to pay attention to her. Waterson is the complete opposite. She has only gone to decision twice and is one of the more popular fighters in the division. However, injuries and losses have prevented Waterson from gaining any real momentum.
As far as the fight goes I really don’t know what to expect. Waterson is fairly inconsistent and Torres is so consistent it hurts. My assumption would be that Waterson has the better ground game, so if anyone’s going to take it to the mat it will be her. Torres has the better overall stand-up game but doesn’t possess the same finishing ability of the Karate Hottie. My guess is that this one stays on the feet with Torres pushing the pace early, then getting caught by a powerful strike from Waterson that puts her down for good.
Prediction: Michelle Waterson by 2nd Round TKO
Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje
How the hell did Cejudo-Pettis get billed higher than this? Alvarez vs Gaethje has the potential to be the Forrest-Bonnar of the modern era. Both men are aggressive brawlers on the feet and strong wrestlers on the mat. I’d give the submission edge to Eddie, but that’s about it. Gaethje’s striking game is more diverse than Eddie’s is, and his youth is definitely something to consider. With 34 fights to his credit, Alvarez is certainly no spring chicken. He’s not nearly as durable as he used to be, and against a dangerous scrapper like Gaethje, that’s not a great quality.
I really wanted to go with Alvarez on this one, but facts are facts. Gaethje is younger, tougher, and most importantly, better for business. Eddie already lost to the biggest draw in the game. Money-wise he doesn’t have much to offer. Gaethje, however, is a promoters wet dream. He’s durable, dangerous, and damn fun to watch. Basically, everything Eddie used to be. Why does any of this matter? Because the judges work for the UFC. If the UFC brass wants Gaethje to win, then he will. Simple as that. Is it right? No, but business is business. And Justin Gaethje is good for business.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje by Split Decision
Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis
This feels like too big a step up for Sergio, which is weird considering he’s ranked #4 and Cejudo is ranked #2. After Cejudo’s fight with Mighty Mouse, I wrote him off as nothing more than a sacrifice to the flyweight king. But his close fight with perennial #1 contender Joseph Benavidez and his vicious knockout over veteran submission artist Wilson Reis have shown me that Cejudo is more than just a big-headed wrestler. Henry is one of the best. If anyone in the division is taking the belt off Mighty Mouse it’s him.
Sergio is a talented kid, no doubt. Give him a few more years to develop and he could be champion one day. Unfortunately for him, the UFC doesn’t have time for that. They need flyweight contenders. If that means a few prospects have to bite the dust then so be it. I just hope Sergio doesn’t get completely outclassed and is able to make a good showing, but against a guy like Cejudo, I’m not holding my breath.
Prediction: Henry Cejudo by Unanimous Decision
Alistair Overeem vs Francis Ngannou
Call me crazy, but I’m still not completely sold on Cheick Kongo with dreadlocks. His only quality win is a knockout over what’s left of Andrei Arlovski. Overeem, on the other hand, has fought nothing but quality contenders in his climb back to the top, with his only loss coming against reigning champion Stipe Miocic (although some would argue they saw the tap). On paper, this is Overeem’s fight to win. Unfortunately, paper is what Overeem’s chin is made of.
Ngannou may not be as technically sound as Overeem is, but he hits just as hard, maybe harder. One good shot from the Predator and Overeem could drop like a sack of horse meat. Combine that with Overeem’s uber-cockiness and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Picking Overeem is always a gamble, but I’m willing to roll the dice on this one. It’s not gonna be pretty but Overeem’s in-and-out kickboxing and “run like hell” defensive style should be just enough to win this.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem by Unanimous Decision
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo 2
Holloway TKO’d Aldo about 6 months ago. Max is in the best form of his career. Aldo is taking the fight on short notice. I really can’t think of a good reason to pick Aldo on this one. Sure his striking is still some of the best in the division, but at this point, he’s writing checks his body can’t cash anymore. His chin has degraded significantly and his patented leg kicks are nowhere to be found. It pains me to say this because Aldo is an incredible fighter, but it’s starting to feel as though the sport is passing him by. Aldo is the past, Max is the future.
Despite just winning the title this summer, Holloway has effectively cleaned out the division. Swanson, Lamas, Stephens, Pettis, all fell to the young Hawaiian. Hell, since his loss to McGregor nobody’s even come close to beating Holloway. This doesn’t mean Max is invincible though. Frankie is still a huge threat to Max’s title, and those who sleep on Aldo are often put to sleep themselves. The road ahead of him is not an easy one, but something tells me Max is going to do just fine. It is what it is.
Prediction: Max Holloway by 2nd Round TKO
GSP vs Robert Whittaker is Easily the Best Fight to Make at Middleweight
GSP became the new middleweight champion of the UFC this past weekend, and many questions have been asked his way. Is he officially the greatest of all time? Who does he fight next? Does he stay at middleweight?
The G.O.A.T. conversation will never be settled completely. There will always be separation in opinions between Anderson Silva, Jon Jones, GSP, Demetrious Johnson, Fedor Emelianenko, and some even say Conor McGregor is the greatest, simply due to the fact that he is the first ever UFC champion to hold two belts simultaneously. Regardless of how that conversation is driven, the biggest question that should be the only concern at this point is the immediate plans for the new middleweight champion.
Where does GSP go next, and who does he fight?
Well, the fact of the matter is, it would not make sense for GSP to go down to the welterweight division again. 170-pounds is alive and kicking at the moment, with new stars emerging such as Darren Till and Mike Perry, to return of veterans like Carlos Condit, and also new additions to the division like Rafael dos Anjos. St-Pierre would have to stay extremely active in order to keep the division flowing.
At the age of 36 and having just returned to MMA last weekend, St-Pierre is unlikely to stay as active as he used to be when he was the king of the welterweight division. Plus, would it really make much sense for him to get on his old diet again in order to make the welterweight weight limit? He looked massive last night, all bulked up, and even seemed like the bigger fighter against Bisping, who used to fight at 205-pounds.
On the other hand, if he decides to stay at middleweight, which is what UFC president Dana White stated would happen yesterday, then there is one clear path for him to take and based on his statements on his contract, will be forced to take: Robert Whittaker.
Whittaker won the interim middleweight belt earlier this year against Yoel Romero at UFC 213, which was a razor close fight that went to Whittaker at the end of 5 rounds. Since then, Whittaker has been sidelined due to the injury he suffered during the fight, damaging his ligament in the left knee.
4 months later, he has seemed to have healed up perfectly, as he was in the arena for the madness last night and even answered a few questions from the media, stating that he is healthy now. The fight against Whittaker would be the best that the UFC could put on at this point in 185-pounds division on a few different levels.
GSP and Whittaker have a lot in common. Starting with the most obvious, they both used to fight at welterweight. Which means that neither fighter will have a massive size advantage. This brings the match up nearly even as far as physicality is concerned.
Then comes the match up itself. St-Pierre and Whittaker both represent the very definition of being ‘well-rounded’. Whittaker, although not an offensive wrestler, proved that his defensive wrestling was second to none in his fight against Romero, a former Olympic wrestler. And while GSP is not necessarily the best wrestler in pure wrestling, his ability to wrestle in MMA is phenomenal due to his timing and fight IQ, which makes this fight even more intriguing to find out whether Whittaker can defend GSP’s takedown attempts.
This fight also represents the UFC an opportunity to see a birth of a superstar. Whittaker, while not a huge talker, is a very marketable fighter especially over in Australia and New Zealand. If he is able to defeat GSP, who’s arguably the biggest draw in the history of the company, it would boost Whittaker’s popularity up an extraordinary amount. And being only 26 years old, Whittaker has the tools and potential to be a dominant champion, much like St-Pierre in his “prime”.
Booking this fight would also clear up the confusing state of the middleweight division. With Bisping’s reign as the champion coming to an end, some hope was born for other contenders in the division. Fighters like Luke Rockhold, Chris Weidman, Yoel Romero, Jacare Souza were having an extremely hard time getting a hold of Michael Bisping during his reign, and with a new champion now and possible unification of the belts soon, the contenders will have a goal to work for again.
The fight is one of the best fights that UFC could put on for the fans right now and one that can happen as early as February of 2018, which is when the UFC returns to Australia with a PPV. If it can come to fruition, then it will easily be one of the best fights of the year and one that all the fans can count the days down to.
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